Getafe’s poor attack in La Liga: Why you should bet against them

Getafe qualified for Europe last season, but their attack was far from menacing. Those struggles have carried over into the La Liga campaign.

Odds courtesy of Betano. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Goal drought isn’t a new problem

Although Getafe finished seventh in La Liga last season and qualified for Europe, their attack was far from menacing.

The Deep Blues finished with 32 goals from 38 matches. Only Real Oviedo, who finished bottom of the standings, had fewer. Not much has changed in the early parts of this season from an attacking perspective.

Their 3-1 win over Sevilla was an anomaly, but it handed them their third league triumph in 11 outings. Jose Bordalás’ side have been averaging 0.73 goals per league game.

That’s the same as Valencia and Malaga, who occupy the bottom two spots in La Liga ahead of this weekend. The coach wants his team to be compact, offering little space for the opponents, but their lack of adventure up front has cost them.

Getafe have an away date with Villarreal before the start of the next international break. They have slightly less time to prepare for that trip because of their Conference League commitments against Brighton. Upon the conclusion of the break, Bordalás’ men will entertain Atletico Madrid. Both fixtures do appear troublesome.

Villarreal have a strong home record against Getafe, although recent meetings haven’t exactly been high scoring. The Azulones won just one of their last 10 visits to El Madrigal, which came back in 2019. Atletico Madrid will also fancy their chances against a Getafe side with poor underlying data, whom they also beat in seven of the last 10 competitive head-to-heads.

Getafe’s attacking numbers don’t lie

For context, Getafe’s average of 0.84 goals per league game from last season is more than their 0.73 goals per game in the current campaign. There is still plenty to play. However, their expected goals (xG) figures suggest their struggles in front of goal cannot simply be attributed to bad luck or unfavourable decisions.

This season’s xG is 7.56, and they’ve scored eight goals, which shows their output matches their chance creation. We shouldn’t read too much into them scoring three goals against Sevilla, as they drastically overperformed their xG by 1.42 in that match. In terms of shots taken in La Liga, Getafe recorded 116, which ranks them above only Valencia (114) and Celta Vigo (108).

However, their shots on target are the lowest of any team in the division, with 30. To make matters worse, their finishing has been poor, despite the limited number of chances they’ve generated. Their shot conversion rate is just 6.9%, higher than only Malaga’s 6.72%. A low number of shots and a poor conversion rate is a recipe for disaster, which Bordalás must remedy in the weeks to come.

Defensively, things have also worsened for Getafe when compared to last season when they were the third-best in the division behind Barcelona and Real Madrid. They conceded a goal per league game on average compared to this season’s 1.45 goals per game. Additionally, they recorded the best xGA (expected goals against) in La Liga last term, with 40.18. This term, they’ve already shipped 16 goals after only 11 matches.

Next up is Villarreal away, and Getafe arrive having lost all five of their La Liga matches on the road this season without scoring a single goal. They average an xG of just 0.36 across those five away games, so expect chances to be at a premium. Due to that lack of cutting edge, it’s worth backing against them in the weeks to come, particularly when they’re away from home.

How to play on Getafe’s struggles

Villarreal are yet to find their stride in La Liga, but they’ll fancy their chances at home against Getafe.

The Dark Blues have averaged just 7.2 shots per away game in the league this season and haven’t scored yet. Each of Getafe’s last three visits to Villarreal saw the goal count fall short of the 2.5-goal line. With the Yellow Submarine winning last season’s corresponding fixture 2-0, it may be worth backing a similar outcome here.

Before this weekend’s La Liga action, Atletico Madrid had won seven league games in a row. That run saw them score an average of 2.14 goals per game and concede 0.29 goals per match.

Atleti also recorded five clean sheets in that run. Considering Getafe’s blunt attack, another won’t be surprising. Although there’s a long way to go for this match, Diego Simeone’s men offer value for the win.