Fulham’s hierarchy may already be considering their options if Alvaro Arbeloa cannot turn things around in the next two matchdays.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| To be relegated | Fulham | 2.75 |
| To finish bottom | Fulham | 11.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Tough times for Fulham
Fulham’s start to the season has raised serious concerns. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side sit 19th in the Premier League after three games. It’s not just that they’re in the relegation zone, but they have no points. Also, their upcoming fixtures offer little to no hope of their fortunes changing.
Worryingly for Fulham, they’ve lost their first three games of a top-flight campaign for just the third time in history. They suffered the same fate in 1951/52 and 2020/21. The Cottagers were relegated on both previous occasions.
Last weekend, Fulham lost 3-2 at home to Crystal Palace, despite taking the lead twice. They lost the opening game to Chelsea by the same scoreline, while their away date at Sunderland ended 1-0 to the hosts. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side are one of the two teams yet to get on the points board, with newly-promoted Coventry City the other.
Fulham have now shipped seven goals in three games, the fourth-worst defence in the Premier League. What’s worse is that the goals they conceded against Palace were all avoidable. This defensive record and defensive mishaps can drag a team straight into the relegation conversation.
The signs don’t look good for Arbeloa. He might have underestimated the demands of the Premier League. Alvaro clearly wants to play a certain way, which involves high pressing, possession, and front-footed football.
However, that hasn’t worked out so far. Fulham risk going into the international break with no points on the table, which would make survival increasingly difficult.
Data suggests there is hope
Despite being on the losing end against Crystal Palace, Fulham showed real intent in the game. They recorded an xG (expected goals) of 3.14 compared to the Eagles’ 1.97.
The 25 shots Fulham managed compared with Palace’s 10, as well as their 64% possession, provide further encouragement. Across their three games, they’ve made 115 touches in the opposition box, the most for any team in the league.
Against Chelsea, they had more ball possession at 62%, hit 14 shots compared to the Blues’ 18, while both teams recorded six shots on target. That shows they can turn things around, and there is still time to improve.
The 50 shots they’ve taken across the three games rank them fourth in that regard. Their 12 shots on target rank them 12th, which points to a problem in the final third. A shot conversion rate of 8% also puts Fulham among the five lowest in the division, which needs to be addressed urgently.
The case for Fulham’s relegation candidacy comes from their defensive frailties. Joachim Andersen’s lack of pace was repeatedly exposed by the high line they deployed against Palace. Arbeloa must find a solution before facing his former club Liverpool and then Manchester United.
Interestingly, he opted for Jorge Cuenca against Chelsea. He won 100% of his ground duels, so it may be worth putting him back into the team.
Fulham’s xGA (expected goals against) is 6.24, the second-highest in the division. Additionally, their opponents have a shot conversion rate of 17.5% against them, which is the highest for any club in the Premier League. Only six Premier League teams have started a season with five straight defeats, and just two of those sides avoided relegation. Arbeloa’s mission before the international break is to avoid defeats in their next two fixtures.
The relegation bet
The relegation market is the cleaner route because it requires Fulham to finish in the bottom three, not rock bottom. Their next two fixtures make the case for backing them now rather than waiting.
If both matches go badly, they could reach the international break with very few or no points, and the relegation price would almost certainly contract. Currently, the West Londoners are fourth favourites to be relegated, behind the three promoted clubs.
Yet, with Hull City already on seven points and Ipswich Town on three, Fulham find themselves in the same position Wolves were in last season. These gaps aren’t decisive in September, but they do change the pressure level for a side already chasing the pack. If their poor form continues, the early deficit could become increasingly difficult to overcome as the season progresses.
Backing them to finish bottom is the more ambitious alternative, but it’s not impossible. However, they would need their current problems to persist throughout the campaign. That seems less likely, given the attacking numbers suggesting there is room for improvement.
As a result, backing Fulham for relegation is the more realistic wager of the two. The defensive record, the league position, and the immediate fixture run strengthen the case for targeting the relegation market.