Three of the four Copa do Brasil quarter-final first legs finished under 2.5 goals. That is a likely scenario come the end of the round.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro | Under 2.5 goals | 1.58 |
| Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama | Under 2.5 goals | 1.58 |
| Gremio vs Internacional | Under 2.5 goals | 1.52 |
| Copa do Brasil treble | Under 2.5 goals in Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama Gremio vs Internacional | 3.60 |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing goal struggles to continue
Three of the four Copa do Brasil quarter-final first legs finished under 2.5 goals. This left Atletico Mineiro and Cruzeiro level at 1-1, Gremio and Internacional locked at 0-0, and Vitoria trailing Vasco da Gama 1-0. The only exception was Palmeiras, who take a 3-0 lead into the second leg.
Interestingly, all eight quarter-finals in last season’s Copa do Brasil finished with the goal count below the 2.5-goal line. All eight teams involved in this year’s competition still had to play Brasileirao fixtures over the weekend. Some of them even faced off against other opponents in the final eight of the cup.
With these rematches turning around so quickly after their league games, there’ll likely be a drop in intensity and energy. As a result, it’s worth looking into a repeat of last season’s second legs where all four matches produced fewer than 2.5 goals. The Palmeiras vs Santos fixture might be out of the question, but the other three are on course for a similar outcome.
No away-goals rule
We’ve discussed how last year’s quarter-finals failed to produce a single fixture with more than 2.5 goals. While that scenario is unlikely to happen this time around, it is still a realistic possibility in three of the four games. The CBF removed the away-goals rule in 2018, which also takes away some risk for the quarter-finalists.
There is no longer a need to go all out for an away goal. If the aggregate scores are level at the end of both legs, penalties will decide the winner. Teams are more likely to play it safe at the back and hope for a goal on the counter.
The shot stats from the first leg show that neither of the six teams involved has been clinical in the attacking third. Cruzeiro and Atletico Mineiro produced 22 shots in total, but only four were on target. Meanwhile, their xG (expected goals) were 0.43 and 0.57, respectively. Internacional and Gremio delivered 26 shots, with only five on target and an xG of 0.85 and 0.37, respectively.
While they weren’t one-sided matches, they were close affairs that could be just as tight in the second leg. Half of the quarter-final ties in 2024 finished below the 2.5 goal line. Meanwhile, five of the eight matches in 2023 also produced fewer than 2.5 goals. The trend is impossible to ignore and could partly stem from the removal of the away-goals rule.
The clearest selection
Gremio vs Internacional is the cleanest statistical fit of the three, particularly after the first leg finished goalless. Before their weekend 3-2 defeat to Bahia, Internacional had been on a four-game run of under 2.5 goals.
Meanwhile, the previous league meeting between the sides finished goalless. Gremio have gone under 2.5 goals in 13 of 24 (54%) Serie A matches, while Internacional have done so in 16 of 25 such fixtures (64%).
Neither side has been particularly prolific in front of goal in the Brazilian Serie A. Gremio scored 27 goals in 24 games, putting them in the bottom seven of the division. The visitors are worse off, scoring 26 in 25 games, ranking them as the third-worst attacking side in Brazil’s top flight.
Additionally, Internacional are on a nine-game winless run in the league and have only won one of their last nine games in all competitions.
The safer selections
Vitoria at home to Vasco da Gama is the next best pick after the Gremio vs Internacional fixture. The away side carry a 1-0 lead, which means there’s no pressure on them to commit heavily in attack.
The hosts need to take the game to their opponents if they are to secure a place in the semi-finals. However, their goalscoring record only strengthens the case for under 2.5 goals.
Vitoria are the lowest-scoring side in Serie A, with 24 goals in 25 games. Nine of 12 home matches have produced under 2.5 goals (75%). A league average of just 0.96 goals per game is the lowest among the six teams involved in these three ties. Just two goals were scored across four league matches in August.
Vasco scored 27 goals in 24 league matches, ranking them in the bottom five for offence in Serie A. The visitors have failed to win their last 11 away league matches. Vitoria beat Vasco 1-0 when the sides met in the league in July, a result that would be ideal for the hosts here.
The third game between Atletico Mineiro and Cruzeiro is the more cautious one, as they’re sitting on a 1-1 aggregate scoreline. The low shot accuracy from the first leg makes the under 2.5 selection playable, especially with a combined four shots on target. Yet, it’s not as clear-cut as the other selections.
Exactly half of Atletico Mineiro’s league matches have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, leaving plenty of room for either outcome. Cruzeiro rank in the top seven in terms of goals scored in Serie A, while only nine of their 25 fixtures produced fewer than 2.5 goals.
Singles are the preferred approach for these selections. A multi-leg version should only be considered if the combined odds remain appealing at publication.