One goal, one assist and five shots are enough to create interest - but only if the price still leaves room for an each-way case after a single match.
| 2026/27 EPL top scorer betting market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 1.67 |
| João Pedro | 9.25 |
| Alexander Isak | 10.00 |
| Igor Thiago | 11.00 |
| Kai Havertz | 21.00 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 23.00 |
| Cole Palmer | 21.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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A season opener did more than yield a goal
Craven Cottage on Monday night was Xabi Alonso's first competitive game in charge. Palmer was the best player on the pitch.
He set up João Pedro for the fastest-ever goal in a Premier League season opener, with the forward scoring inside the first minute. Palmer was also involved in the build-up to Morgan Rogers’ first goal for the club before half-time.
He then rounded off the scoring himself four minutes after the break, wrong-footing Bernd Leno before squeezing the ball past him.
The underlying numbers are arguably more significant than the three goal contributions. Palmer played 83 minutes and registered five shots, four of which were inside the box.
He hit the target twice and posted 0.28 xG. There was plenty more to Palmer’s performance than the goal, as he played a major role in Chelsea’s attacking threat.
Chelsea's collective numbers support that up to a point. The Blues recorded 18 shots, six of which were on target, and an xG of 2.24. Yet, this was encouraging rather than overwhelming.
Fulham responded through Josh King and Gonzalo García, with both goals coming after Robert Sánchez’s errors. The Cottagers finished with 14 shots, six on target and 1.33 xG of their own.
Chelsea were threatening in attack, but their defensive structure left a lot to be desired. That is hardly surprising during the early stages of a new manager’s tenure, particularly with Alonso introducing a new tactical approach.
Alonso's post-match assessment was telling: if Chelsea want a good team, he said, they need a fit and firing Palmer.
Palmer admitted post-match that last season’s injury-disrupted campaign was a difficult one. The former Manchester City forward said he had worked hard over the summer and returned to Stamford Bridge feeling fit and motivated.
Palmer is no stranger to the top end of the EPL goalscoring charts
Palmer's appeal does not rest on one productive evening. He has already produced a serious Premier League scoring season, hitting 22 goals in 34 appearances in 2023/24.
That fell to 15 in 37 in 2024/25 and then 10 in 26 last season. Nevertheless, the underlying rates across those three campaigns still read 0.65, 0.41 and 0.38 goals per game.
That’s a solid baseline, with Palmer averaging 0.48 goals per game, or almost one goal every other EPL match.
Penalties matter too. Palmer converted nine, four and five spot-kicks across those same three seasons. He is an unusually reliable taker.
If Alonso keeps him as Chelsea’s penalty taker, his potential in this market will increase significantly. His status as Chelsea’s primary penalty taker is the single most important thing to confirm before committing to his top goalscorer odds.
There’s no margin for error if Palmer is to be in Golden Boot contention, however. Haaland won last season's race with 27 goals, five clear of Brentford's Igor Thiago in second.
Palmer's 10-goal return in 2025/26 was nowhere near that level. His 22-goal season is the relevant reference point because it shows he has at least operated in the right ballpark before.
There is also a potential reset factor working in his favour. Palmer was left out of Thomas Tuchel's England squad for the 2026 World Cup. This decision gave him a full summer off. He has nevertheless put in the work to return ready for another high-level domestic campaign in 2026/27.
Palmer’s Golden Boot case is all about value
Chelsea’s attacking output could ultimately determine whether this bet pays off. Their league goal totals have fallen from 77 to 64 to 58 across three seasons. Palmer's route to a genuine challenge depends on the Blues’ attack becoming more productive again.
There is a reasonable case for that. Chelsea finished last season on 58 goals from an xG of 64.45. This suggests they failed to make the most of their chances. They also scored three times from 2.24 xG in the opening-day win at Fulham.
Morgan Rogers’ arrival from Aston Villa for a British-record £117m reunites Palmer with a player he has known since the pair were at Manchester City. The duo played together in the England youth setup too and are said to have a telepathic on-field relationship.
However, Alonso has been clear the team will be built with his new attackers rather than around them. A stronger forward line could therefore distribute the goals more evenly instead of making Palmer the primary beneficiary.
João Pedro scored 15 league goals last season and is ahead of Palmer in this market for a reason.
Ultimately, backing Palmer each-way for the Golden Boot is more about the price than his performances.
At an implied probability of around 4%, it may be worth a small bet. However, the backdrop is a 27-goal winning benchmark, a declining team scoring trend and unconfirmed penalty duties. More cautious bettors may prefer to wait and see how the season develops.
Brighton's visit on Sunday is the immediate test. Repeating his shot volume from the Fulham game would do far more for Palmer’s case than him scoring another goal.