Five value picks for Champions League matchday three

This season’s league phase is averaging 4.08 goals per game, up from 3.38 last season, with the top clubs almost all prioritising attacking football.

Five value picks for Champions League matchday three

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Fenerbahce vs Slavia Prague - Fenerbahce win

Fenerbahce were one of many teams to be exploited defensively on Matchday 2. They were beaten severely 6-0 in Birmingham by Aston Villa. However, the scoreline didn’t tell the entire story, with the visitors creating 1.73 xG and three big chances.

They tend to fare much better at home in European competitions, and they look set to bounce back immediately. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Fenerbahce have lost just five of their 27 home matches in Europe, winning 15 contests. During that run, they’ve scored an average of 1.78 goals per game, conceding just 0.89.

Those figures suggest they are still worth backing, even at a relatively short price against Slavia Prague. The Czech side were odds-on favourites away to tournament debutants Sabah on Matchday 2, but lost 2-0.

That defeat means Slavia have now failed to win any of their last eight away matches in European competitions. They lost seven of those fixtures and netted just one goal across all of them. Such a miserable record adds to the sense that Fenerbahce will emerge victorious on Tuesday evening.

PSG vs Barcelona - Over 4.5 goals

The two outright favourites to win the 2026/27 Champions League clash in Paris on Matchweek 3. PSG are targeting a third straight European title and are fresh from a statement 4-2 win against Manchester City. Meanwhile, free-scoring Barcelona continue to sweep all opponents, running through Galatasaray, 4-1 in Istanbul.

Goals look guaranteed as neither Hansi Flick nor Luis Enrique will abandon their attacking principles. Both coaches are willing to take risks to win the ball back quickly, which does leave a lot of space behind. There were nine big chances in PSG’s trip to the Etihad Stadium, and this game should be more open than that one.

The only Champions League game at the Parc des Princes so far this season ended in a 6-1 PSG win. It may have been against outsiders Slovan Bratislava, but PSG have scored freely against the top sides too. They were 5-4 winners in their thrilling last Champions League home fixture during the previous season against Bayern Munich.

Over 4.5 goals looks to offer value against Barcelona with an implied probability of 44%. That bet has also landed in each of the Catalan club’s two Champions League fixtures this term. Right now, Barca are arguably the most dangerous attacking team in Europe, and they should even have Raphinha back from injury for this game. 

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal - Over 2.5 goals

Arsenal are something of an outlier among the European elite. Their success in recent years has largely been the result of their solid defence. However, they did shift things into gear against Bayern Munich in last season’s league phase, beating them 3-1.

One year on, there should be goals again as the clubs clash at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are still scoring and conceding plenty of goals, as evidenced by the matchday two 3-3 draw against Viking. Since the start of last season, their Champions League matches have seen an average of 4.63 goals per game.

There have been at least five goals in both of Bayern’s European fixtures so far this season. Meanwhile, Arsenal netted three times in the space of eight second-half minutes to overpower Lille on matchday two.

The bookmakers aren’t expecting this to be as high-scoring as the other heavyweight clash in Paris. That means it’s possible to back over 2.5 goals with an implied probability of 62%. That bet has landed in eight of Bayern’s last nine Champions League outings.

Como vs Manchester United - Over 2.5 goals

Como are the new name on the elite European stage this season. They play an entertaining, possession-based brand of football under Cesc Fabregas. The Italians tend to press high, which creates high-quality chances but can also leave them vulnerable in transition.

We’ve already seen the best and worst of Como just two matches into their first campaign at this level. Each of their games has produced five goals, with a 4-1 win over Leipzig, followed by a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord.

Manchester United absolutely need to respond to their 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid. They should comfortably make the top 24, but they’ll need to start winning in their pursuit of the top eight finish. That format is contributing to some of the open, attacking football we’ve seen so far.

On current form, United’s defence could well struggle against an attacking Como side. However, the visitors do have the pace to strike on the break. That suggests backing over 2.5 goals is the smart approach to take.

Club Brugge vs Lens - Over 3.5 goals

One of the standout results in this UCL season was Club Brugge’s 4-3 win against Inter, when Nicolo Tresoldi silenced San Siro with a hat-trick. There were an extraordinary 13 big chances created and 8.62 xG in total in a wide-open contest.

The Belgian club’s opening game also saw a lot of goals, ending in a 3-2 defeat against Aston Villa. Since the start of last season, Club Brugge’s home matches in the Champions League have averaged 4.88 goals per 90 minutes. That points towards there being plenty of action when Lens visit on Wednesday.

The French outfit were 3-2 winners in their opening away fixture against Slavia Prague. They will also view this as a game they can triumph in, given their opponents are far from flawless at the back.

Club Brugge have allowed 7.5 xG so far in the league phase, which is the worst record of all 36 teams. One week on from a wild encounter in Milan, backing over 3.5 goals looks good, with an implied probability of 40%.