Marseille’s turbulent days are over under Genesio

Genesio has already tightened up Marseille’s defence, and their strong start suggests they could push for a top-three finish. The value may not last. 

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Genesio can turn things around

Marseille’s season took a turn for the worse after Roberto De Zerbi left the club in February. The Italian repeatedly threatened to resign during his time at the club. Habib Beye led the club for the final months of the season, but won just six of their final 13 Ligue 1 matches. 

As a result, Les Olympiens dropped out of the automatic Champions League qualification spots. Marseille missed out on fourth place as well. They had to settle for fifth and a place in the Europa League this season. Missing out by one point prompted the club’s hierarchy to bring in Bruno Genesio from Lille. 

Last season, Genesio guided Lille to a third-place finish and Champions League qualification. They finished two points above his new employers, Marseille. His impact was clear in the club’s opening-day 4-0 win over Strasbourg. Now, Sunday’s trip to Monaco offers an interesting betting opportunity, with Marseille priced close to even money to take three points.

Building on Marseille’s attacking strength

Last season, Marseille had the third-highest xG (expected goals) in Ligue 1 with 60.28. They scored 63 goals, outperforming their xG. The side took 512 shots, with 193 on target, ranking them second in the division behind Paris Saint-Germain. However, their defence let them down, conceding 45 goals at an average of 1.32 goals per match. 

Marseille ranked seventh for xGA (expected goals against) at 44.90, but still conceded more goals than expected. There is plenty of room for improvement at the back, and Genesio could provide the solution. His Lille team had the second-lowest xGA in Ligue 1 last season, at just 36.11.

The new manager has made it clear that he wants Marseille to play with a high press and an attacking mindset. He said, “I demand a proactive approach, with a high-pressing block, attacking principles, and a clear team and playing identity.” However, Genesio’s tenure is still in its infancy, so there is work to be done. 

Additionally, Facundo Medina, Timothy Weah, and Hamed Traore have been brought in to strengthen Les Olympiens this season. 

Marseille’s first outing against Strasbourg showed signs of improvement. They recorded an xG of 1.86 while restricting their opponents to just 0.19. Genesio’s troops held 67% ball possession and recorded eight shots on target, compared with Strasbourg’s two. 

Amine Gouiri gives Marseille a natural focal point in attack. His brace in that game followed a 2025-26 league campaign in which he produced eight goals and three assists in 22 appearances. If Marseille can add more structure to their attacking threat, Gouiri will be central to it.

A big test at Monaco 

The odds make Monaco slight favourites. However, the opening weekend suggests the gap between the sides is smaller. Monaco won 1-0 at Le Havre thanks to Eric Dier’s early goal, yet the performance was less convincing than Marseille’s opener. The hosts had seven shots on target to Le Havre’s four, but struggled to make their chances count. 

Additionally, Monaco had six big chances but scored just once, showing a lack of clinical finishing. Marseille, by contrast, controlled territory, possession, and chance quality in a way Monaco didn’t.

Monaco are still a tougher test than Strasbourg, especially since Marseille lost 2-1 here in April. The schedule also matters, as Marseille have eight days of rest between the Strasbourg win and this fixture. Monaco had to face Gornik Zabrze in Conference League qualification on Thursday before turning back to league duty on Sunday.

Marseille are close to full strength, with Leonardo Balerdi their only confirmed absentee. Monaco have more to contend with, as Folarin Balogun, Takumi Minamino, Mohammed Salisu and Jordan Teze are all set to miss out. 

It may be too early to judge Marseille’s Champions League prospects, but the signs are encouraging. Genesio has already brought greater structure to the side, while their attacking quality remains, and the 4-0 win over Strasbourg was a strong start. Having guided Lille to third last season, he knows how to get a team into the top three, so Marseille look worth backing at the current price.