After saving La Viola from relegation last term, Paolo Vanoli now has the tools to move the club in the right direction.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia vs Fiorentina | Fiorentina to win | 2.32 |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Vanoli’s fresh start at Fiorentina
A once-proud club that competed regularly in Europe found themselves fighting to stay in Serie A last season. Fiorentina finished 15th, just eight points ahead of the relegation zone. La Viola started last season under Stefano Pioli, who only oversaw 14 matches. He lost six of those games before leaving the club in November.
The club’s hierarchy turned to Paolo Vanoli, the man responsible for retaining Fiorentina’s top-flight status in Italy. Sporting director Fabio Paratici shook hands with Vanoli and decided to bring in Fabio Grosso ahead of this season. After a positive start with a convincing Coppa Italia victory over Benevento, things have gone wrong for La Viola.
Three league defeats in three games were the last straw for Paratici. He then decided it was time for the club to part ways with Grosso. Vanoli is back in charge, with several new signings strengthening his squad. Having won the fans’ support and saved the club from relegation last term, he could quickly get the best out of his players.
A revamped Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s start to the Serie A season has been brutal. They lost 4-0 at Roma, were beaten 3-0 at home by Frosinone and then fell 2-1 to Torino. They are bottom with no points and nine goals conceded after three matches. Grosso paid the price for Fiorentina's worst-ever start to a league season and a series of tactical decisions that failed to work.
His lack of experience was evident in his approach. He regularly changed his formation and personnel across the three league matches. Fiorentina never fielded the same starting XI in consecutive games, with four or five changes made each time.
The 2-1 defeat to Torino proved to be the final straw. Fiorentina had led 1-0 before fans protested, leading to Grosso’s dismissal and Vanoli’s return.
After their struggles last season, Fiorentina invested heavily in the summer transfer window. They brought in no fewer than 15 players and spent approximately €150 million. Vanoli knew the team from last season, but only six outfield players remain: Nicolo Fagioli, Marco Brescianini, Cher Ndour, Marin Pongracic, Luca Ranieri and Dodo.
Fagioli is likely to benefit the most from Vanoli’s return. The head coach found a role that brought out his best last campaign. Fiorentina could then switch to a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, providing more stability than under Grosso. Either formation is similar to the 4-1-4-1 Vanoli used last term, when he picked up 29 points in the second half of the season.
Vanoli can now express himself more freely, given the personnel he has at his disposal. Franco Mastantuono, Mateo Pellegrino, Wilfried Gnonto, Pedro Goncalves, Giovanni Fabbian, and Beto were all brought in and can bolster Fiorentina’s attack going forward. Additionally, Alieu Njie joined the club after Vanoli handed him his debut at Torino.
Fiorentina’s numbers point to a turnaround
Both teams are struggling, but Fiorentina’s transfer business and Vanoli’s return make them slight favourites to beat Venezia.
Despite the visitors losing all three games, the underlying numbers suggest there is something that Vanoli can work with. According to Opta Analyst, La Viola have an xPTS (expected points) of 4.4, which should place them around ninth in Serie A.
The data shows that they’ve had their fair share of bad luck in the opening three games. They rank higher than Napoli and Atalanta in the expected points table.
On the attacking front, Fiorentina recorded an xG (expected goals) of 4.15. They have scored just once, underperforming their xG by 3.15. The problem for La Viola is their shot conversion rate of 2.08%, currently the worst in the division. The new forward additions could help improve that figure.
Fiorentina have been taking plenty of shots, with 48 across three games ranking them seventh in Serie A. Their 14 shots on target also rank them seventh. Against Torino, La Viola recorded 1.67 xG compared with 0.58 for their opponents. They also had twice as many shots.
Despite blanking at home to Frosinone, Fiorentina dominated ball possession (60%), took 25 shots to 12 and had an xG of 1.77 compared with 1.11 from the newcomers. That is enough to suggest the market may be slightly overreacting, especially if Vanoli can make the team more coherent.
Vanoli still needs to improve Fiorentina’s defence. They have an xGA of 4.75 but have conceded nine goals, 4.25 more than expected. Venezia also have defensive problems, having conceded seven goals in three games. Their xGA of 6.88 suggests they’ve allowed better chances than Fiorentina.
Both teams have conceded 18 shots on target. Fiorentina’s conversion rate against is 25%, compared with 17.07% for Venezia. This suggests the goals markets could be worth considering. Venezia’s xG per shot faced (the chances of a goal per shot faced) was ranked the highest in Serie A at 0.17, while La Viola were ranked second at 0.13.
Last season, Vanoli drew his first two games in charge, and it took him six matches to find his first victory. The recent head-to-head at this ground is another reason to be cautious, with Venezia beating Fiorentina 2-1 in May 2025.
Still, Vanoli’s return offers a plausible reset, and with the latest squad additions, they’re worth backing given their price.