Teams that have climbed into their top flight have avoided the relegation conversation. However, the statistics tell a different story.
| Newly-promoted teams to go back down | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pisa | 1.93 |
| Leeds United | 3.80 |
| Lorient | 4.40 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Pisa: 34-year absence to count against them
It’s been a long, hard road back into Serie A for Pisa. The Towers finally grabbed an automatic promotion spot in Serie B under the guidance of Filippo Inzaghi. The mistake the hierarchy made was allowing the former AC Milan player to leave at the end of last season.
Inzaghi remained in Serie B with Palermo, and the Black and Blues marched on to Serie A with Alberto Gilardino at the helm. Things could not have gone worse for the newly-promoted team, because they currently occupy last place in Italy’s top flight.
After seven matches, they’re yet to register a win and are one of two clubs to have not scored a goal at home. Two points from four home games explain why Pisa will struggle to get off the bottom of the standings.
To put their form into context, the rest of Serie A average 1.34 points per game, while Pisa are at 0.43 points per game. It doesn’t bode well that Gilardino was last at Genoa, where he was sacked for hovering near the relegation zone in November last year.
The players have shown little fight, as they’ve only equalised once in the entire season after going behind. Gilardino’s charges haven’t scored a single goal across their last four games, and if he can’t ignite their attack, they’ll be heading straight back down.
Leeds United: The danger may yet come
Daniel Farke has done a splendid job at Leeds United, getting them promoted to the Premier League within two seasons. However, winning the Championship and trying to stay up in one of the best leagues in the world are two entirely different things.
While Leeds are in 16th place after eight games, they’re only three points away from the drop zone. The Elland Road fans hope this season doesn’t end with them losing their Premier League status.
Yet, that is easier said than done. Wolves and West Ham continue to struggle, but with Nuno Espirito Santo at the helm, the Hammers could improve soon. That means that Leeds must start winning games, as they’ve only won two of their eight so far (25%). Apart from their opening day win against Everton, the Whites' other win was against last-placed Wolves.
The problem for Leeds is that they’ve yet to play many of the teams in the top half of the table. They had a sample with a 5-0 beating at the hands of Arsenal. They may face more heavy losses, which could push them further down the table.
It’s worth noting that Farke is no stranger to relegation, as he went down with Norwich City in 2020. Leeds are a point worse off now than they were at the same stage in the season they were relegated. That’s an indication that United could be in for a tough battle.
FC Lorient: Defensive issues to pull them back into the fight
Lorient were relegated after spending four consecutive seasons in the French Ligue 1, following two seasons where they finished 16th. Olivier Pantaloni then took charge and brought them straight back by winning Ligue 2 in just one season.
The Frenchman has found it tough in Ligue 1. His side are safe for the moment, sitting 13th in the division. However, they’ve only accumulated eight points from as many league games, leaving them just two points off the danger zone.
That means they have won just one point more at the same stage of the season than they did when they were relegated in 2023/24. In terms of form, away dates are a concern for Les Merlus, as they’re yet to win after four attempts.
The Ligue 2 champions have a real problem in defence. Only Metz (20) conceded more than their 19 goals this season. The manager must address their leaky backline as they concede an average of 2.38 goals per game, where the league average is 1.51.
Furthermore, the Orange and Blacks tend to falter after conceding. They’ve never recovered a single point when the opponents scored first. Pantaloni has a huge task on his hands if he can prevent the same fate as Ajaccio’s drop in 2023 when he was in charge.
Therefore, despite being in a comfortable position for now, perhaps it’s the best time to back the newly-promoted side to head back down. They are one of the value picks currently, and their form suggests they will be one of the primary candidates to be relegated.