Pep Guardiola’s City hope to bounce back from defeat at Newcastle in the EPL with a morale-boosting UCL win at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
Best bets for Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen +2 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.80 with 1xBet
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94 with 1xBet
- Patrik Schick anytime goalscorer at odds of 4.30 with 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Manchester City 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen
- Goalscorers prediction – Manchester City: Haaland, Doku - Leverkusen: Schick
Bayer Leverkusen travel to Manchester City on Tuesday night. They desperately need a positive result to keep their UCL league phase qualification hopes alive.
City have picked up ten points from their first four UCL league phase games so far this season. They are currently in fourth place and in good shape to clinch a top-eight finish. This would immediately qualify them for the knockout stages.
They face Leverkusen for the first time in history this week. Guardiola is likely to be without star midfielder Rodri. The Spanish ace is nursing a hamstring problem and is rated highly doubtful. Guardiola will probably shuffle the pack after Saturday’s loss at Newcastle. The likes of John Stones and Savinho are in line for midweek starts.
Bayer Leverkusen sit in 21st place in the UCL league phase table after four games. They have five points to their name and sit just three places above the 24th-place cut-off for the knockout playoffs.
Leverkusen are third in the German Bundesliga and have four wins in five games at domestic level. Their average is nearly three goals per game domestically, but they have only managed six in four UCL games. Keeping them out at the other end has been the biggest issue. They concede an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Ait-Nouri, Lewis, Gvardiol, Stones, Savinho, Gonzalez, Reijnders, Doku, Foden, Haaland
Bayer Leverkusen expected lineup: Flekken, Tella, Belocian, Bade, Quansah, Maza, Grimaldo, Garcia, Poku, Tillman, Schick
Leverkusen to avoid defeat by more than a one-goal margin
The 3-way handicap market is our best bet for value on Tuesday evening. Backing the visitors at a +2 handicap seems like the way to go here. The betting markets give the Germans a 45.45% chance of avoiding defeat by two or more goals.
City lost 2-1 to Newcastle on Saturday, so their confidence has likely taken a hit. Their midfield still lacks control and structure whenever Rodri is sidelined, and he’s almost certain to miss out on Tuesday.
Leverkusen score an average of 1.5 goals per UCL game. Even if they manage just one goal at the Etihad, City would need to find three or more for this handicap bet to lose. At an odds-against price, this is the top value bet from our trio of Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions.
- Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen Bet 1: Bayer Leverkusen +2 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.80 with 1xBet
Modest value on Under 3.5 Goals
50% of Bayer Leverkusen’s games have finished with four or more goals scored. However, that figure drops to 40% for Manchester City. Using a 45% average as a benchmark, under 3.5 goals can be backed at a probability of 54.05%.
City have conceded just three times in four UCL league phase matches so far this season. Even if Leverkusen score, City would need to score three or more to lose this bet.
Dortmund, a German team of comparable quality to Leverkusen, were thrashed 4-1 at City. However, Leverkusen should learn from Dortmund’s attack-minded approach and frustrate City.
- Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94 with 1xBet
Huge value on Schick to net for the visitors
It’s difficult to find value among goalscorers in the City side. Yet, one name stands out for Leverkusen. Czech striker Patrik Schick appears to offer serious value in the Anytime Goalscorer market.
Schick has scored five goals in nine Bundesliga games and one goal in two UCL games this season. The betting markets believe Schick has only a 22.22% chance of scoring anytime at the Etihad Stadium.
That’s well below his 55.56% strike rate in the Bundesliga and his 50% UCL strike rate. However, that UCL form comes from just two games. Nevertheless, if Leverkusen are to score, Schick appears the value candidate.
- Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen Bet 3: Patrik Schick anytime goalscorer at odds of 4.30 with 1xBet