After their 4-3 loss to Belgium in June, Wales need to get back to winning ways in Kazakhstan to stand any chance of reaching next summer’s finals.
Best bets for Kazakhstan vs Wales
- Wales – Wales (HT-FT) at odds of 2.33 with Bet9ja
- Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07 with Bet9ja
- Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 2.11 with Bet9ja
Wales should edge Kazakhstan 2-1.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Wales travel to Astana this week for the fifth game of their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. The Dragons are bidding for their third win in five matches to put pressure on North Macedonia and Belgium.
Kazakhstan have picked up just three points from their first three qualifying matches, including a 3-1 defeat to Wales in Cardiff. They know nothing less than a victory is needed to keep themselves in contention for at least a playoff spot.
The Kazakhs have won two of their five competitive games in 2025, albeit both victories came against minnows Curacao and Liechtenstein. Their last game in June saw them lose narrowly to current group leaders Macedonia.
It’s been an entertaining 2026 World Cup qualification schedule for the Dragons' fans. Craig Bellamy’s side have scored ten goals in four games and conceded six. Their last game – a 4-3 loss to Belgium – demonstrated their resilience and determination against a team packed with world-class talent.
Bellamy won’t have a full-strength side to call upon in Astana this week. Leeds’ defensive midfielder, Ethan Ampadu, will miss out due to a knee problem. Bellamy has also opted to leave skipper, Aaron Ramsey, out of the squad. The 34-year-old has only recently returned to match action after a hamstring injury sustained in March.
Probable lineups for Kazakhstan vs Wales
Kazakhstan expected lineup: Seysen; Astanov, Vorogovskiy, Alip, Malyi, Bystrov, Chesnokov, Kenzhebek, Tagybergen, Kuat, Samorodov
Wales expected lineup: Darlow; Roberts, Davies, Rodon, Mepham, James, Sheehan, Thomas, Wilson, Johnson, Brooks
Wales to lead at half-time
Craig Bellamy’s side were quick off the mark in their 3-1 home win over Kazakhstan in March. They raced into a 9th-minute lead and set the tone early.
Wales should do something similar this week. Kazakhstan need a win to keep their faint qualification aspirations alive, so the Dragons could find even more space to exploit in the first 45 in Astana.
That’s why we are backing Wales to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage for a big three points. The betting markets believe there is only a 43.48% chance of this happening, but this should be closer to the 50% mark. Both teams need the win, but Wales have already shown once this campaign that they are a level above the Kazakhs.
- Kazakhstan vs Wales Bet 1: Wales – Wales (HT-FT) at odds of 2.33 with Bet9ja
Bellamy’s Dragons are anything but goal-shy
Wales’ 2026 World Cup qualifiers have averaged four goals per game so far in this campaign. Although the 4-3 defeat to Belgium is a minor outlier and has bolstered those numbers somewhat, there were four goals in the first meeting between Wales and Kazakhstan in March.
That is why backing the over 2.5 goals market is the clear value play of our trio of Kazakhstan vs Wales predictions. The betting markets currently believe there’s less than a 50% chance of three or more goals being scored in Astana.
Yet, Wales have scored three goals in three of their first four qualifying games. It’s true that only seven goals have featured in Kazakhstan’s three initial qualifiers, but they will be acutely aware of their own ‘win or bust’ scenario during this international fortnight.
- Kazakhstan vs Wales Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07 with Bet9ja
Backing the hosts to find the net
Although we’re backing Wales to win this contest in Astana, there is a chance it may not be 100% plain sailing. Ethan Ampadu, 56-cap holding midfielder, will miss out on this trip through injury, which then leaves a big gap in midfield to fill.
Bolton Wanderers’ midfielder, Josh Sheehan, seems to be the most likely deputy. However, the League One midfielder is clearly a step down from the Leeds United star.
The Kazakhs managed to find the net in Cardiff back in March, and they’ve averaged one goal scored per game in this campaign to date. That’s why we’re very happy to back both teams to score at an odds-against price.
- Kazakhstan vs Wales Bet 3: Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 2.11 with Bet9ja