Villa and Nottingham Forest are led by managers who have won the Europa League. However, Roma, Real Betis and Bologna should be competitive.
| Europa League winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6.00 |
| Roma | 11.00 |
| Real Betis | 11.00 |
| Porto | 11.00 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15.00 |
| Bologna | 15.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Europa League winner odds: Which teams should start strong?
While the 2024/25 Europa League final was an all-English affair, Lazio narrowly edged Athletic Club to finish top of their league phase. The Italians actually had a slightly tougher schedule according to Opta, but won six of their eight games. That suggests fixture difficulty ratings may not be quite as significant in this competition as in the Champions League.
Outright favourites Aston Villa are thought to have the third-easiest set of fixtures in this season’s league phase. However, their poor start to the Premier League suggests they may be vulnerable in their opening fixtures. That will encourage Bologna who travel to Birmingham on Matchday 1.
Vincenzo Italiano’s side are given a 7.7% chance of finishing top in the league phase. With an otherwise favourable schedule, they’ll be serious contenders if they can get a result at Villa Park.
Of the other six favourites in the outright market, Betis have the most challenging league-phase fixtures. They are also missing key man Isco to injury until at least November.
By contrast, Ange Postecoglou’s Forest have a much kinder schedule. However, it remains to be seen how the East Midlands club will adapt to the loss of Nuno Espirito Santo. The transition to playing two games per week could also weigh heavily on their squad.
Aston Villa
Matchday 1 offers an early glimpse of how some of the leading Europa League candidates are shaping up. Forest travel to Seville to take on Betis, while Villa’s clash with Bologna is a repeat of a 2024/25 Champions League fixture.
The Premier League side won that match 2-0 and went on to reach the quarter-finals. They also made it to the Conference League semi-finals the previous year, so this is now an experienced squad that knows how to handle big European nights. That bodes well for Villa’s chances in the 2025/26 Europa League.
With four titles, Unai Emery has also won this competition more times than any other manager. That surely gives the Villans an edge on the field, and helps explain why they are the favourites, with a 14.3% chance of lifting the trophy.
While punters may be concerned by Villa’s poor start, it might not harm their Europa League hopes. As we saw last season, Spurs and Manchester United’s Premier League woes enabled them to focus more on their European commitments. A repeat is certainly possible with Emery’s men if they fail to mount a serious challenge in the top six in England.
Bologna
With a 9.1% chance of winning the trophy, Bologna are ranked as one of the favourites, yet they remain somewhat unpredictable. That may help them fall under the radar to some extent, but they are good value at those odds given the strengths they bring to the table.
They had a taste of European football last term after a long absence. Despite a really poor start, they were starting to find their rhythm in the Champions League by the final league-phase matchdays. I Rossoblu avoided defeat against Benfica, Borussia Dortmund and Sporting on matchdays six to eight.
That wasn’t enough to prevent an early exit, but it means they go into this season’s Europa League as a more experienced side. A reasonably kind schedule should offer them safe passage into the Round of 16.
Their knockout pedigree is further boosted by their fine run to Coppa Italia glory last term. They held their nerve in the big games, and saw off Milan 1-0 in the final in Rome.
After that glory night, it seems like the initially difficult transition from Thiago Motta to Italiano has now been completed. They could be dangerous opponents for anyone they meet in Europe this term.