Our betting expert expects both teams to score, but Atletico to take control of the tie by securing a clear first-leg advantage.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
- First half - Atletico Madrid at odds of 1.97 on 1xBet
- Atletico Madrid to win & Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 on 1xBet
- Both teams to score at odds of 1.72 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 3-1 Tottenham
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Julian Alvarez, Ademola Lookman, Giuliano Simeone - Tottenham: Dominic Solanke
Atletico Madrid had to come through an entertaining play-off against Club Brugge to set up this tie. They’ve won four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 4-1 second-leg win over the Belgians. Diego Simeone’s side head into this match after beating Real Sociedad 3-2 in La Liga on Saturday.
A favourable schedule helped Tottenham secure a fourth-place finish in the league phase. However, they have struggled significantly at home since achieving that result.
Spurs have suffered defeat in each of their last five outings. Three of those losses have occurred under Igor Tudor's guidance, who has failed to make an impact since taking over from Thomas Frank.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Llorente, Lookman, Koke, Cardoso, Simeone, Griezmann, Alvarez
Tottenham expected lineup: Vicario, Danso, Romero, Van de Ven, Souza, Palhinha, Sarr, Porro, Simons, Tel, Solanke
Atleti expected to start strongly
Atletico Madrid carry all the momentum heading into this encounter. They will likely identify the vulnerabilities in this Tottenham team and will expect to establish a significant lead.
When playing at their peak, Atleti can perform with great intensity from the opening whistle. This was evident when they surprised Barcelona by scoring four goals without reply in the first half of a Copa del Rey match last month.
Los Rojiblancos have also developed a habit of starting well in other competitions. They managed to score the opening goal in every one of their first 15 league matches this season. Additionally, Simeone’s side have a goal difference of +6 during the first half of their Champions League fixtures.
Given that they are facing a struggling Spurs team, there appears to be value in backing Atleti to lead at half-time.
- Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Bet 1: First half - Atletico Madrid at odds of 1.97 on 1xBet
Goals to flow in home win
The idea that Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid remain a primarily defensive team is not supported by the statistics. Their matches during the league phase averaged four goals every 90 minutes. Meanwhile, nine of their 10 Champions League games this season have featured at least three goals.
Seven of Atleti’s last eight matches in all competitions have also produced three or more goals. They will target a convincing win in this leg, especially as they are much more effective at home than on the road.
Tottenham’s current form suggests such an outcome is very possible. Tudor is already under significant pressure, as his side faces a real threat of relegation from the Premier League. Spurs have conceded nine goals and allowed 6.13 xG during their three matches under the Croatian manager so far.
With several vital players missing through injury, there is little reason to expect Spurs to suddenly find their rhythm. Betting on Atletico to win alongside over 2.5 goals appears to be a good choice, with an implied probability of 46.5%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Bet 2: Atletico Madrid to win & Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 on 1xBet
Spurs to get on the scoresheet in the Spanish capital
There is at least a small reason for optimism for Tottenham, as Atletico Madrid are struggling to keep clean sheets. The Spanish club has conceded a goal in all 10 of their Champions League matches this term. That represents a very significant decline from their most successful period in the competition around a decade ago.
Both teams have found the net in all but one of Atleti’s European matches this season. The only exception was their 4-0 loss to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
Tottenham have averaged 1.75 xG per 90 minutes in the Champions League this year. They have continued to score goals despite their recent difficult run of results. The North Londoners have failed to score in only one of their last 13 matches across all competitions.
These factors suggest there is value in backing both teams to score at the Estadio Metropolitano this Tuesday evening.
- Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Bet 3: Both teams to score at odds of 1.72 on 1xBet