Our betting expert expects a relatively open game, with the Portuguese side capable of upsetting Los Blancos once more.
Best bets for Benfica vs Real Madrid
- Benfica to win or draw at odds of 1.86 on Betway
- Benfica to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 2.40 on Betway
- Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 2.00 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Benfica 2-1 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis, Andreas Schjelderup - Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior
Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 on the final matchday in the league phase last month. Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a dramatic fourth goal in stoppage time and sealed progress for Jose Mourinho’s team.
That result also denied Real Madrid direct passage into the round of 16. They must now negotiate a two-legged play-off tie against the same opposition.
Since that remarkable night, Benfica have lost further ground in the Portuguese title race after only drawing with Tondela. Meanwhile, Real Madrid bounced back from that setback with league wins over Rayo Vallecano and Valencia.
Probable lineups for Benfica vs Real Madrid
Benfica expected lineup: Trubin, Dahl, T. Araujo, Otamendi, Dedic, Barreiro, Aursnes, Schjelderup, Sudakov, Prestianni, Pavlidis
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Real Madrid set for another difficult night in Lisbon
Benfica’s victory three weeks ago was no fluke. They were the superior side in that match against a shaky Real Madrid, who only needed a draw.
The hosts created eight big chances and generated 3.01 xG across the 90 minutes. Real Madrid finished with an xG total of 1.51, despite dominating possession.
Benfica exploited their opponents’ problems at right-back, with left winger Andreas Schjelderup scoring twice. Since then, Alvaro Arbeloa has opted to move Fede Valverde back into midfield. However, neither Dani Carvajal nor Trent Alexander-Arnold has managed to build up much match fitness following recent injuries.
Jude Bellingham and Eder Militao are out injured, while Kylian Mbappe has not trained fully in the week before this game. Those issues point to another potentially tricky night for the visitors. Backing Benfica to win or draw carries an implied probability of 53.5%.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Benfica to win or draw at odds of 1.86 on Betway
Benfica’s attack to fire in play-off
Raul Asencio’s late red card in the last meeting rules him out for Tuesday. The youngster has been one of the more reliable Real Madrid defenders in recent months.
While the Spanish giants tend to keep it tight in La Liga, it has been a different story in Europe. Against more attack-minded opponents, Real Madrid conceded 1.5 goals per game in the UCL league phase. They also allowed 13.0 xG in total, which was the 14th-worst record.
Aside from long-term absentee Dodi Lukebakio, Benfica’s attack should be at full strength. Schjelderup should cause problems again, while Vangelis Pavlidis has been prolific in Portugal this term. He has also registered two goals and two assists in the Champions League.
Backing the hosts to score over 1.5 goals offers value, with an implied probability of 41.7%.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Benfica to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 2.40 on Betway
Goals to flow after the break
The recent encounter was goalless until the 30th minute, but exploded into life after that. There has also been a clear overall trend of late goals since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge of Real Madrid.
The first four Los Blancos matches under Arbeloa’s guidance all served up more goals in the second half than the first. The Benfica game broke that run, with three goals either side of the break. However, the pattern resumed in league games against Rayo Vallecano and Valencia.
Benfica conceded eight times after the break in the UCL league phase. That was twice as many goals as they let in during the first half.
Mourinho is unlikely to take unnecessary risks from the first whistle here. However, he knows that Benfica need to make home advantage count, so the match should eventually open up. Backing the second half to serve up the most goals looks like the smart bet.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 2.00 on Betway