City and Dortmund have seven points from their first three games of the 25/26 UCL League Phase. Will an improving City overwhelm BVB?
Best bets for Man City vs Borussia Dortmund
- Man City -1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.05 with Betway
- Erling Haaland First goalscorer at odds of 3.00 with Betway
- 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Man City 3-1 Borussia Dortmund
- Goalscorers prediction – Man City: Haaland x2, Foden – Borussia Dortmund: Guirassy
Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund are in the top eight in the UCL League Phase after three games. They will face off at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night in Gameweek 4.
City have really gotten in good domestic form. Pep Guardiola’s men are now second in the table, six points behind current leaders Arsenal. City are the league’s top scorers, though, with an average of two goals scored per game.
Additionally, their average scored goals in the Champions League is two, with just two conceded in their opening three games. Star striker Erling Haaland is fit and firing again, having scored 17 goals in 13 EPL and UCL appearances this season.
Borussia Dortmund travel to Manchester with great confidence, as they are one place above City in the UCL League Phase. Niko Kovac’s side have scored 12 goals in three games, having conceded seven goals in the process.
They’ve only lost once in the Bundesliga so far this season, but are still seven points behind leaders Bayern Munich. Kovac has a relatively fit squad at his disposal, with Julien Duranville the only senior absentee.
Probable lineups for Man City vs Borussia Dortmund
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma; Ait-Nouri, Nunes, Dias, Stones, Savinho, Rodri, Reijnders, Doku, Foden, Haaland
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel; Couto, Schlotterbeck, Anton, Bensebaini, Nmecha, Svensson, Bellingham, Brandt, Beier, Guirassy
Backing City to get the job done
Given City’s recent resurgence, it’s difficult not to back Man City to win. Additionally, it might be smart to back them to win by a two-goal margin or better at an odds-against price. Although Dortmund have scored plenty of goals, they’ve conceded more than two goals per game as well.
City’s defence will likely be harder for Dortmund to break through. BVB will be forced to play defensively for most of the game at the Etihad Stadium.
City are undefeated in their three home meetings with BVB in the Champions League, having won their last two encounters 2-1 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. It seems like this City side are starting to gain momentum, with Rodri fit, Haaland scoring well, and Donnarumma becoming a very dependable goalkeeper.
- Man City vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 1: Man City -1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.05 with Betway
Haaland to break the tie
By his usual high standards, the 2024/25 season was relatively quiet for Erling Haaland. He scored 30 goals in 40 games across the EPL and UCL campaigns. However, the 25-year-old has already scored 17 goals in just 13 appearances so far in 2025/26.
He’s already netted four times in three UCL games, at a strike rate of 133%. Haaland is almost certain to be Guardiola’s focal point against BVB. To that end, it’s surprising to be able to back him to score first at a probability of only 33.33%.
Haaland has a 50% strike rate against Dortmund while playing for City, having faced BVB twice back in the 2022/23 UCL campaign.
- Man City vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 2: Erling Haaland First goalscorer at odds of 3.00 with Betway
Second-half goal fest expected
All three of Dortmund’s UCL games in the League Phase have seen plenty of goals after the halftime interval. In their 4-4 draw at Juventus, all eight goals came in the second period. In their 4-1 home win over Athletic Bilbao, four of the five goals scored came after halftime.
Finally, four of the six goals in BVB’s emphatic 4-2 win at FC Copenhagen last month were also converted after the halftime break.
Both of Man City’s goals in their 2-0 win over Napoli came in the second half. Dortmund and Napoli are in similar form, so this is a useful benchmark. Therefore, it might be a good idea to back the second half to feature more goals than the first at a modest 50% probability.
- Man City vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 3: 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) at odds of 2.00 with Betway