Our betting expert expects a tough game for both sides. It could end in a stalemate after 90 minutes.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Mali 1-1 Tunisia
- Goalscorers prediction: Mali: Lassine Sinayoko; Tunisia: Elias Achouri
Mali’s Africa Cup of Nations can only be described as underwhelming so far. However, as one of the dark horses of the competition, the knockout stages could be where they will shine. Tom Saintfiet’s men failed to register a single win in Group A.
Thankfully for them, three stalemates were enough to see them qualify as runners-up to hosts Morocco. The Eagles were dominant in their final group game against Comoros. They kept 68% of the ball and sent 13 shots through. However, their problem has been creating tangible chances, as only two of those shots were on target.
That will have to improve drastically when they face North African side Tunisia on Saturday. The Carthage Eagles can only boast a slightly better group phase performance. Tunisia recorded three different results in Group C, finishing with four points to secure qualification.
Sami Trabelsi’s men have already done better than in 2023, when they were knocked out in the group stages. They hope to channel the Roger Lemerre-led team that claimed the title in 2004. If they can get over the line, it will be Tunisia’s second AFCON title, but they have to overcome Mali.
Probable lineups for Mali vs Tunisia
Mali expected lineup: Diarra, Doucoure, Diaby, O.Camara, Gassama, Sangare, Bissouma, M.Camara, Doumbia, Nene, Sinayoko
Tunisia expected lineup: Dahmen, Tounekti, Talbi, Valery, Skhiri, Bronn, Abdi, Mejbri, Gharbi, Mastouri, Achouri
Both teams can find the net
Mali have struggled in front of goal in this competition. They’ve scored just twice across their three fixtures so far. However, they’ve only shipped two goals in the tournament, which highlights their defensive solidity.
Two 1-1 draws suggest that both teams can get some joy in this round-of-16 clash. Tunisia have been slightly better in the final third, scoring six goals in three games at an average of two goals per game. Defensively, however, there are improvements to be made as they conceded five goals in that run of games.
That gives the Malians hope of breaking through the Carthage Eagles’ defence. Meanwhile, each of the last four Tunisian outings produced goals on both ends. Half of their last eight head-to-heads saw both nations find the back of the net.
- Mali vs Tunisia Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 2.24 on Betway
Tunisia relying on Achouri to deliver
This fixture has goalscoring threats across the pitch, from Lassine Sinayoko for the Eagles to Elias Achouri for the North Africans. It’s the latter that grabs the attention when it comes to who can make a difference in this one.
Achouri is Tunisia’s leading goalscorer at this AFCON, with two goals scored already. However, he scored that brace in the first game and has been on a two-match drought ever since.
If he can get over that and regain the form that saw him score four goals in his last seven for both club and country, he could make a real impact. Tunisia can then rely on him to find the net in this game.
Where the teams could falter
These teams are ranked quite closely by FIFA. Tunisia sit in 41st and Mali are just 12 places behind in 53rd. That is a prime example of just how close these teams are. Mali are now on an undefeated run of six games. They’ve won twice but drawn in their most recent four games in a row.
Tunisia were on a three-game winning run before meeting Nigeria in their second group game, which they lost. With a draw last time out, the Carthage Eagles are winless across two internationals.
Historically, this fixture has been tight. The previous two meetings ended all square, once in AFCON and the other during World Cup qualifiers. The previous three were dominated by Tunisia, who won two of those games.
Their previous three AFCON head-to-heads saw two end in stalemates. That’s likely the outcome of this meeting as well, as both sides are closely matched. Both teams have weaknesses that could be exploited. However, the pressure of the competition might see the match end as it began.
- Mali vs Tunisia Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - Draw at odds of 2.75 on Betway