The Azzurri should get the better of the Norwegians in Milan, but they likely won’t get the goal swing to top their World Cup qualifying group.
Best bets for Italy vs Norway
- Italy to win at odds of 2.05 on 1xBet
- Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77 on 1xBet
- Second half with the most goals at odds of 2.04 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Italy 2-1 Norway
- Goalscorers prediction - Italy: Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori - Norway: Erling Haaland
Italy have been practically flawless over their last six games, winning all of them and keeping four clean sheets. However, defeat to Norway back in June sees them head into this final match in second place in Group I. They now need to beat their opponents by nine goals if they’re to leapfrog them – and that would take a miracle.
What’s happened in Norway’s World Cup qualifying campaign is nothing short of remarkable. They’ve won seven of seven, scored a whopping 33 goals, and conceded just four times. The Norwegians are set to top the table, and they absolutely deserve their spot at next year’s showpiece event.
Probable lineups for Italy vs Norway
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori, Cambiaso, Tonali, Barella, Locatelli, Dimarco, Raspadori, Retegui
Norway expected lineup: Nyland, Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe, Bobb, Berge, Berg, Nusa, Haaland, Sorloth
Norway’s big buffer
Italy have only lost three times at home since the start of 2023, and they go into this game on a six-game winning run. It’s been 40 years since they lost to Norway in a home fixture. They’ll fancy their chances of getting a result even though the Norwegians are in frighteningly good form.
Ståle Solbakken and his side also have breathing room, while the Azzurri have to go for it. The visitors could lose 8-0 and still top their group, sealing their spot at the World Cup, and that is a comfortable buffer. Gennaro Gattuso, meanwhile, will be desperate to see a big performance from his side after recent criticism from fans.
We can see a narrow victory for the hosts, with Norway easing off slightly. This won’t alter the final group standings.
- Italy vs Norway Bet 1: Italy to win at odds of 2.05 on 1xBet
Goals at the San Siro
As previously mentioned, the Italians have no choice but to be relentless here. Scoring nine without reply is an almost impossible task, but they will try to regain some credibility from their supporters. Their push for goals could leave them vulnerable at the back — and the Norwegians have the perfect player who can capitalise on that.
Erling Haaland has scored in 10 consecutive games for Landslaget. With 14 goals, he is the top scorer in World Cup qualifiers. Italy will have to work hard to keep him quiet, but the return of Nicola Barella is a boost. Mateo Retegui has been in good form, and Giacomo Raspadori shook off an injury to feature against Moldova. This gives Gattuso solid attacking options.
Goals are likely in this one, most probably at both ends of the field. All but one of Norway’s WCQ games have seen over 2.5 goals scored, and five of Italy’s seven have gone the same way.
- Italy vs Norway Bet 2: Over. 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77 on 1xBet
A late flurry
Italy have left things late in many of their recent fixtures. Even in their 2-0 win over Moldova in midweek, the breakthrough didn’t come until the 88th minute. In total, 15 of their 20 goals in WCQ have come in the second half. We could see a late flurry as they chase a meaningful win, even if topping the group is out of reach.
Norway have also scored more after the break, but only marginally. Their goalscoring efforts have been so impressive that they’ve almost split their goals equally — 16 in the first half, 17 in the second. All four goals came between the 50th and 62nd minutes in their 4-0 win over Estonia on Thursday.
Expect a cautious start before Italy push forward. The second half could deliver some fireworks.
- Italy vs Norway Bet 3: Second half with the most goals at odds of 2.04 on 1xBet