We have our first midweek fixtures in the Premier League and this is where the teams with the best depth usually succeed.
Southampton last played Saturday and will have an extra day of rest, while Chelsea battled Leicester on Sunday with only 10 men after the Conor Gallagher red card.
Fatigue will be an issue for the Blues, but they have the depth to be able to rotate their lineup.
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Both teams will play again on Saturday, including a London Derby between Chelsea and West Ham.
Let’s look at the betting odds for this Week 5 matchup between Southampton and Chelsea.
Ani Sridhar’s 2022-23 Soccer Betting Record: 8-5, +4.2 units
Southampton v Chelsea Odds
- 3-way handicap: Chelsea -175 | Draw +320 | Southampton +425
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 ( -160) | Under 2.5 (+115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes -135| No +100
Southampton v Chelsea odds are current as of Aug. 29 on BetMGM Sportsbook.
There’s no value here for betting Chelsea moneyline, but if you think Southampton can pull off the upset at home, then you are getting that at a fantastic price at +425.
Two out of the three wins between the teams came against Leicester, but Southampton was able to force a draw against Leeds while Chelsea stumbled against the same opponent.
Southampton v Chelsea Betting Tips
Expect Chelsea holding possession with a Southampton counter-attack
Chelsea should control the ball for the majority of the game, but Southampton has been dangerous this season on the counter-attack. Despite losing 0-1 to Manchester United on Saturday, Southampton was able to rack up 17 shots with five shots on target. They failed to score a goal for the first time this season.
Raheem Sterling finally scored his first two goals for Chelsea and they will need him to continue this form. Hopefully, the West London side can play with a complete lineup after picking up a red card in two consecutive games.
Thomas Tuchel will most likely go back to a back three in this contest with the return of Kalidou Koulibaly from suspension. The Southampton attack has been very good this season and this could leave the Chelsea defense vulnerable. Roméo Lavia has been fantastic in the midfield and Ché Adams continues to be a consistent goal scorer for the team.
If Southampton can convert their chances in the final third, then this could turn into a high-scoring contest.
Southampton v Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea 2-1 Southampton
This is going to be a tough test for Chelsea and they cannot afford to fall back any further from Arsenal in the table, even though it is still early in the season. Southampton has an above-average attack but are weak on defense. Reece James and Ben Chilwell/Marc Cucurella will control this game on the wings and play the ball into the middle.
It wouldn’t come as a surprise if Southampton got out to an early lead and Chelsea came from behind to win on Tuesday evening. Chelsea are unbeaten against Southampton in their last five matches, including a 6-0 victory in their last matchup.
Southampton v Chelsea Best Bets
Both Teams to Score: Yes (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 unit
Although I believe Chelsea will win this game, they still haven’t looked like a dominant side this season. Southampton can definitely take three points away from this game, so this bet is safer than Chelsea ML in my opinion. Both teams have looked vulnerable defending in the final third, so we could see a lot of goals.
Mendy had a better performance against Leicester after his errors against Leeds, but still gave up a goal to Harvey Barnes he should’ve saved by protecting the near post.
Back both sides to find the back of the net in this contest.
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Over 10.5 Corners (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 unit
With the short rest for both teams, we could see fatigue playing a big part and this could lead to a lot of open space on the wings. Chelsea love playing through their wingbacks and this leads to crosses into the box. Most of the time, the defenders will clear the ball behind the goal leading to corner kicks.
Southampton conceded 10 corners to Tottenham and we can expect to see a similar number against Chelsea, which is why I love the Over 10.5 corners.
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