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The Rondo, MLS Conference Finals edition: Can NYCFC upset Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami - and would an MLS Cup win make San Diego FC the best expansion club ever?

Right then - conference finals time. Zoom out, consider the options, and try to be objective, and maybe we were always headed here. As much as the haters wanted Inter Miami to stumble, the Lionel Messi storyline is simply too rich to ignore. San Diego FC have been good all season and fully merit their spot. Vancouver’s acquisition of Thomas Muller last summer signaled their ambition - and their willingness to spend big to get here.

And then there’s NYCFC. Credit to the Pigeons, who have ticked every “Cinderella story” box imaginable. If they reach the final, the feel-good narrative stays very much alive. But can anyone realistically stop Miami now? And will Vancouver’s massive investment in Muller pay off with an MLS Cup final appearance?

It’s all perfectly poised. GOAL U.S. writers break down two massive matches in another edition of… The Rondo.

  • FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami FC - 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs: Conference SemifinalGetty Images Sport

    What's your prediction for Inter Miami-NYCFC?

    Tom Hindle: Is it immensely offensive to NYCFC to say this might not be particularly close? Miami are too good for pretty much anyone at the moment, and if that Messi guy shows up this should really be an unfortunate formality for the Herons. A 3-1 win here.

    Ryan Tolmich: If NYCFC were full strength, maybe this would be a bit closer. No disrespect to them, of course, but their injury issues aren't going to help. Miami should cruise through this as a result, giving Messi his first crack at an MLS Cup.

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  • Matt Freese NYCFCGetty Images

    How significant of an upset would an NYCFC win be?

    TH: Massive. Atlanta United is obviously the famous MLS playoff one in recent memory, but this would run it close. The Pigeons might have a shot in other circumstances, but they're without their main goalscoring threat. Pascal Jansen has them playing some good stuff, and they won't be embarrassed, but they simply don't have the quality to get it done. 

    RT: Pretty damn significant. Shorthanded, on the road and against the greatest of all time? Good luck with that! Now, Miami have fallen before, and last season's loss to Atlanta was an all-time MLS upset. This, though, would probably be even crazier than that given the circumstances and stakes, even if it is a one-off game.

  • Luis Suarez, Inter MiamiImagn

    Should Luis Suarez start for Miami?

    TH: Not even remotely. Javier Mascherano has found a winning combination with Mateo Silvetti in the XI, and it should be enough to carry Miami into the MLS Cup final. Now, if they get there, it might be a different story. But El Pistolero should be on the bench for now. 

    RT: Probably not, at the moment. The club appears to have something going with the pieces around Messi, and that is almost certainly the formula for these playoffs and the next era of Miami soccer. Plus, is it the worst thing to have Suarez off the bench as a "break in case of emergency" supersub?

  • Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Los Angeles Football Club - 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs: Conference SemifinalGetty Images Sport

    Prediction for Vancouver-San Diego?

    TH: This is a really tough one. The smart pick, though, might just be Vancouver, who beat the (other) best team in the West last weekend. Thomas Muller is a star through and through, and they're good enough at the back, too. San Diego will play some tasty stuff, but it's hard to look past Muller and Co. 

    RT: Whitecaps should cruise here, right? They have momentum and, of course, quality, not to mention the superstar factor of Muller. The Whitecaps, at the moment, seem to have those "team of destiny" vibes. San Diego, too, have some of those vibes given all they've accomplished, but the Whitecaps' run still feels just a bit more real given the talent they've amassed to make it happen.

  • San Diego FC v Minnesota United - 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs: Conference SemifinalGetty Images Sport

    Which of the two was the unlikelier finalist at the start of the season?

    TH: Vancouver. Expansion franchises are always a wildcard, but Vancouver's ownership literally tried to sell the team at the start of the season. So, like, uhhh???

    RT: San Diego, for sure. Expansion seasons are notoriously hard, even with the clean slate and abundance of resources. To get here, you have to get every single thing right, and San Diego has generally done that. Credit to them for making it this far, and if they can make it one step further, it would be a huge credit to the decision-makers at that club for putting it all together.

  • San Diego FC v Portland Timbers - 2025 MLS Cup PlayoffsGetty Images Sport

    Would an MLS Cup win make San Diego the best expansion team ever?

    TH: It would absolutely have to be. St. Louis City were quality a couple of years ago, but San Diego have made it happen in the big games in the way they simply couldn't. 

    RT: It absolutely would be. We've seen some good expansion seasons lately, notably St. Louis recently, but an MLS Cup final appearance would trump everything. It takes so much for a club to reach this level, and it can't all be a fluke. Because of that, San Diego would rocket right to the top of the list, if they aren't there already.