Replacing Rodri: Is Kalvin Phillips good enough to cover for Man City's suspended 'best holding midfielder in Europe'?

Rodri has often flown under the radar at the Etihad Stadium, and it has taken a while for people to truly appreciate what he offers City. Although he gives everything on the pitch, he is unassuming off it. Take the fact that when he was playing in La Liga for Villarreal, he continued to study a degree in business administration and lived in student accommodation, driving a Mini to training.

He had a solid start to his City career after his £62m ($75m) switch from Atletico Madrid in 2019, but struggled to truly stand out in a team of stars and was infamously left out of the 2021 Champions League final defeat to Chelsea.

He truly came into his own after that disappointing night in Porto, though, and the following campaign struck seven Premier League goals, including the crucial equaliser against Aston Villa on the dramatic final day. Last season, he continued to step up in the biggest moments, netting a scorching opener against Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-final and the only goal in the final against Inter.

His strike in Istanbul gave Rodri the recognition he deserved after a campaign in which he quietly stood above every one else. He averaged more touches than any other Premier League midfielder (103 per match), while also making the most ball recoveries (18.5) per 1,000 opponent touches.

As well as controlling the play from deep, he had a crucial role in chance creation, making the most passes into the final third (265). He had the third-highest number of passes into the area (260) and the fifth best pass completion rate (91 per cent). As well as being in a league of his own technically, he was physically imposing. He ranked third for aerial duels, winning 68.5 percent.

Rodri's combination of technical ability and his physical prowess made him the most press-resistant midfielder in the league in the last two seasons, while the only player on his level in that category in Europe's top-five leagues last campaign was Real Madrid's Toni Kroos.

While City have a squad brimming with talent, particularly in midfield, there is no one in Guardiola's squad who can do what Rodri does. And when he is not available, City tend to suffer.

In 2023, City have only lost four competitive matches over 90 minutes: the Carabao Cup defeats to Southampton and Newcastle, and the league defeats to Tottenham and Brentford (the latter was a dead-rubber as City had already wrapped up the title). Rodri started just one of those games. In the 2021-22 season, City lost nine matches in all competitions; Rodri started just four of them.

Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville said that Rodri's forthcoming absence at the Emirates Stadium "levels up" the crunch fixture with Arsenal, adding that "City don't have anyone who can replace him like-for-like".

Now contrast Rodri's record with that of Phillips, who in theory is his understudy. The England international has started just five matches since joining from Leeds in 2022, and three of them have ended in defeat.

Phillips and Rodri are both aged 27 but have had contrasting careers. Although Rodri began his professional career in the third tier of Spanish football with Villarreal's reserve team, he was playing regularly in La Liga by the time he was 20.

Phillips broke into Leeds' first team at a similar time, but spent four seasons toiling in the Championship, which is far from the ideal place to nurture technical ability. Still, he turned into one of the most influential players of Marcelo Bielsa's thrilling side that just missed out on promotion in 2018-19, before clinching their long-awaited return to the Premier League following year.

Bielsa was one of Guardiola's coaching mentors and so it was unsurprising that Phillips caught his attention. The midfielder's stock rose even higher following Leeds' impressive return to the top-flight, and as he started every game in England's run to the Euro 2020 final.

City fought off competition from Manchester United to sign Phillips in August 2022, helped by the midfielder's disdain for the Red Devils. However, his start to life with the Blues was disrupted by a shoulder injury suffered in a friendly match with Barcelona in August, which then resurfaced in September, forcing him to undergo surgery.

He played just four matches before the World Cup in Qatar and was again left out when the season resumed. Asked about Phillips' absence in December, Guardiola made the stunning revelation that the player had reported back from Qatar "overweight".

Phillips returned to full fitness and to the squad but continued to be left out of the majority of games. He ended the campaign with just just two league starts, both of which came after the title had been wrapped up.

He only made one start in the FA Cup, against Bristol City, and was left out of the semi-final against Sheffield United even when Guardiola decided to rest the majority of his regular starters. The sad truth is that his biggest contribution to City's treble win was pouring drink into Jack Grealish's mouth during the celebrations.

Phillips' lack of minutes was all the more surprising given Guardiola had spoken of the need to rest Rodri. “He has to fight with Rodri, for the benefit of all of us," the coach said in January. "Rodri cannot sleep and must have the feeling there is someone close to him to do it. He has to."

Rodri's suspension has finally given him the chance to sleep and Phillips was immediately called upon against Forest as Guardiola deployed a back-five and ordered City to defend deep. In that atmosphere, Phillips did what was asked and thrived.

Guardiola praised his contribution but still managed to sound critical of his abilities, saying: "I know sometimes he struggles for some things that we need — in small spaces to be quicker, and other players have another type of quality. But in the game today, what we needed — to be there to win the second balls, to keep the balls, to make actions to the byline, the personality in long balls, even in the corners, because we knew it with a lot of crosses in the way they (Forest) play — he gave us a lot.”

Phillips spoke to the media after the Forest game and called the coming fortnight "probably the biggest week or so in my Man City career so far". He also confirmed he had turned down the chance to leave City on loan in the summer and said he was determined to make a go of his career with the club, taking inspiration from how Nathan Ake and Jack Grealish had improved in their second seasons after disappointing starts in the blue half of Manchester.

“When I came in for pre-season, I said I wanted to stay and give it another shot. In previous years, a lot of players have done well in the second season and I had a talk with the club and they said that if I wanted to go out on loan they would be happy for me to do that. I just said no, it’s not something I am thinking of. I just want to concentrate on playing for Manchester City," Phillips told reporters.

"I have always seen in players like Jack and Nathan — they have always been my inspiration — that the second season is always better at City. Obviously, it’s not gone that way (for me) as of yet, but I just come in, work hard and stay upbeat, which is very difficult. There are a lot of great players in this team who can help me get better every day. I try to keep my head, train hard and, when the chance comes, take it.”

Against Newcastle, however, Phillips did not take his chance. City dominated the first half but their monopolisaton of possession was sterile, creating just a couple of half-chances. Newcastle had the best opportunity of the first half and it came from a giveaway by Phillips, admittedly not helped by a loose pass from Josko Gvardiol.

While Rodri is always looking to put opponents under pressure (note his statistics on progressive passing), Phillips played it too safe, often knocking the ball backwards. When he did try and play long balls over the top in the second half, they often missed their targets.

Phillips was also passive defensively, offering none of the physical presence of Rodri. He also lacked awareness, failing to pick up Alexander Isak when he struck the only goal of the game. Rico Lewis was more culpable than Phillips for the goal as he failed to cut out the pass towards Isak, but the midfielder did not exactly cover himself in glory either.

Guardiola tried to be upbeat about Phillips' performance at St James' Park, but he was not exactly effusive. He said: "He played really good. Really, really good. It’s not easy when you have a lack of rhythm, lack of tempo or minutes."

He also could not give any clear indication of whether he would put him back in at Molineux on Saturday. “Absolutely," was the coach's first response before throwing in a caveat and adding: "Everyone has the chance. We have time now, come back, recovery, and we have time to think about it."

Guardiola has had a lot of time to think about Phillips, however, and on a year and two month's evidence he is unlikely to start him against Wolves. Mateo Kovacic has just returned from injury and started against Newcastle while Matheus Nunes, who has made a solid start since his switch from Wolves, began the cup tie on the bench, perhaps a clue that he will be in from the start against his former club.

City's exit from the Carabao Cup mean Phillips might not get many more starting opportunities until the FA Cup starts up in January. For all his determination, one gets the sense his big chance might have already been and gone.