Lionel Messi makes Inter Miami MLS Cup favorites, but is the Argentine star's patchy knockout record cause for concern?

First, the facts. It is worth mentioning, at this point, that Messi’s numbers, per game, at least, make for ridiculous reading regardless of how important any given fixture is. The Argentine does not go from dominant to irrelevant when something is on the line.

But in league and group stage play, he averages, 0.79 goals per 90 minutes, and 1.14 goal contributions. Those are pretty much unmatched in football history (yes, Cristiano Ronaldo’s numbers are worse.)

When survival is on the line, though, his numbers drop. Goals are at 0.64 per 90, while goal contributions are at 0.98. Context is everything, of course. Averaging one goal involvement - basically finding the net himself or providing an assist - every time he steps on the field is a simply ridiculous mark. Still, if Messi is associated with dominance (he is), then there’s certainly a bit of a change.

That Copa America penalty miss lived long in the collective footballing memory. It was ammunition for trolls and haters alike, ammunition to suggest why Messi would never be as good as “big game” Ronaldo.

And in repeated opportunities to come up with similar moments over the years for Argentina, he has frequently failed to deliver. There was the shot dragged wide in the 2014 World Cup final, a free-kick battered against the wall in the same game. In 2018, he seemed to be on the brink of magic after weaving through the France defense - but could only scuff his shot into the arms of a grateful Hugo Lloris.

An alien became slightly above average.

By 2018, a grim fact emerged: Messi had never scored a World Cup knockout goal. That all changed in Qatar, of course, when Messi orchestrated a World Cup win. And his performance for Barcelona in the Champions League final against Manchester United will never be forgotten.

Messi's time at PSG was miserable. He never settled in Paris. He never really wanted to leave Barcelona. He might have even wanted to go back - had Barca's finances been cobbled together. His two years there - from 2021-2023 - were an admittedly transitional time among stars in club football.

Both he and Ronaldo were seeing their years at the top level come to an end, while Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Erling Haaland hadn't quite reached their apexes of talent. And for all the glitz and glamor of sharing a front line with Mbappe and Neymar, the onus still fell on Messi to make things happen.

What happened, instead, was two years of bare minimums; required successes in the league, but tepid showings in both the Coupe de France and Champions League saw the Parisian hopes of European glory fall awry. The first campaign, PSG were eliminated by a signature bout of Real Madrid voodoo - Messi didn't score in either leg. In his second, the Parisians were shut out, battered 3-0 by Bayern Munich.

There were broader tactical issues at play. To accommodate for the space Mbappe needed to run into, Messi dropped far too deep - routinely avoiding the attacking areas in which he would normally thrive. In transition, both sides simply played through him.

Perhaps some of the blame can be pinned on managers for not making it work. Mbappe, too, didn't make it easy on Messi. Still, in the biggest games, the GOAT seemingly disappeared.

That changed, in some respects, with Leagues Cup last year. Messi carried Miami through the competition, starting with a last minute free-kick in his debut to a curler in the final. Yes, others chipped in, but those few weeks in the middle of the MLS campaign marked his arrival in style.

For Argentina, a year later, familiar struggles returned. Perhaps it was the lingering effects of calf injuries that had limited him the season before. Maybe he was just tired. Either way, Messi endured a miserable month for his national team.

In five appearances, he scored one and set up one - far from his usual return (a Copa America team of the tournament selection was generous.) He was anonymous in the knockout stages - save for a deflected effort against Canada that handed his side a narrow win. And perhaps most tellingly, the penalty curse reared it ugly head, Messi's penalty shootout effort clipping off the bar and into the stands. Emi Martinez bailed Argentina out in the end, but a Messi miss almost proved costly.

Throw in a nasty high-ankle sprain sustained the Copa America final, and the Argentina magic seemed to have disappeared, just 18 months after leading the Albiceleste to World Cup glory in Qatar.

This could all admittedly matter little, of course. As with Argentina this summer, Miami have a handful of other threats. Luis Suarez has been as effective as advertised in MLS, scoring 20 and assisting nine in 27 games in his debut campaign for Miami.

Diego Gomez has proved that he can pull the strings as an attacking midfielder. Leo Campana - effectively booted from the XI by Suarez's arrival - has chipped in with timely goals of his own. With Jordi Alba bombing forward and a solid midfield corps holding everything together, Messi can perhaps afford an off night.

Still, this represents a different challenge for the Argentine. Best-of-three series with heavy travel could tire those aging legs. There likely won't be any early substitutions, or games where he can ignore concepts of "defending" and "pressing." Miami have got this far by playing one way, but tournament soccer is inherently different.

Ultimately, it will come down to which version of Messi shows up: the other-worldly star who rolls through MLS, or the attacking threat that needs support. A miniscule difference, perhaps, but one that could tip the balance in Miami's MLS Cup hopes.