The USMNT have won their last three meetings with Paraguay across all competitions. Can they clinch a fourth consecutive victory?
Best bets for USA vs Paraguay
- USA to win at odds of 2.02 with Betano
- Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30 with Betano
- Christian Pulisic to assist at odds of 3.20 with Betano
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - USA 2-1 Paraguay
- Goalscorers prediction - USA: Balogun, Tillman - Paraguay: Sanabria
World Cup 2026 co-hosts USA open their group stage campaign against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Given that they’re the host nation, the USA team will be carrying the full weight of expectation.
These two nations haven’t faced off at a World Cup finals since 1930. Mauricio Pochettino’s American side are in good form after some solid warm-up friendlies. They defeated Senegal 3-2 in an entertaining five-goal match, then lost 2-1 to Germany.
It was pleasing for Pochettino and American soccer fans to see Christian Pulisic return to goalscoring form after a recent drought. Having injured his ankle, Chris Richards is the main doubt for Pochettino, with a decision to be made soon on his selection. Mark McKenzie is the likeliest deputy, following Miles Robinson’s uncertain showing against Germany.
Paraguay arrive at this summer’s finals unbeaten in their last eight games. However, their squad has been beset with injuries at just the wrong time. Head coach Gustavo Alfaro could be without star forward Julio Enciso for the entire tournament due to hamstring and quad issues.
Enciso’s absence will be a major setback for a team that’s already notorious for being low scorers. With Damian Bobadilla also a fitness concern, a lot will rest on the shoulders of captain, Gustavo Gomez, to marshal a disciplined defensive unit.
Probable lineups for USA vs Paraguay
USA expected lineup: Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards, Dest, Robinson, Adams, McKennie, Tillman, Pulisic, Balogun
Paraguay expected lineup: Fernandez; Caceres, Alderete, G. Gomez, Alonso, D. Gomez, Cubas, Kaku, Mauricio, Almiron, Sanabria
Poch’s prospects to hit the ground running
The Paraguayans haven’t enjoyed an ideal preparation for the 2026 World Cup. Their warm-up win over Nicaragua came at a severe cost. Star forward, Julio Enciso, has been ruled out of this game and is a major doubt for the rest of the tournament. Meanwhile, midfielder Damian Bobadilla is another injury concern for this match.
There is a clear tactical contrast between these two sides. The US likes to commit players forward and create overloads, while Paraguay are defensively compact. The Paraguayans aim to deny space between the lines and counter-attack with the likes of Enciso and Almiron.
With Enciso sidelined, their transitional dangers will be hugely blunted. Given this and America’s huge home advantage, Pochettino’s side should overwhelm Paraguay.
Given their recent dominance over Paraguay, we were surprised to be able to back the USMNT to win at a near coin flip probability. This is comfortably the best value play from our trio of USA vs Paraguay predictions.
- USA vs Paraguay Bet 1: USA to win at odds of 2.02 with Betano
Value on three or more goals
Certain factors suggest that this tournament will be a low-scoring affair. A combination of heat, humidity, and altitude in certain venues will result in matches with reduced tempo. However, the USMNT only know one way to play under Pochettino and that is to attack.
Eight of their last ten matches across all competitions have featured three or more goals. Additionally, 50% of Paraguay’s last ten games in all competitions have also seen Over 2.5 goals bets land. Yet we can back this outcome on Saturday at a probability of just 44.44%.
The American side will be motivated to make a statement of intent in front of their own fans. If they can beat the Paraguayans, the group will appear a whole lot easier to qualify. Both teams have scored in seven of America’s last eight games, too. If this trend continues, it only requires either side to score one more for the Overs line to be met.
- USA vs Paraguay Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30 with Betano
Backing Pulisic to be USA’s creator-in-chief
Pulisic has long been America’s talisman in the final third. The 27-year-old has racked up 55 goal contributions in 86 appearances for his country. His assist strike rate stands at around 25.58%.
We can back Pulisic to create at least one goal against Paraguay at a probability of only 20% this weekend. In 2025, Pulisic played four times for his country, with an assist strike rate of 25%. He maintained this strike rate during his four appearances so far in 2026.
This means there’s around 5% of value in this bet. He will be motivated to be America’s game-changer. Only three USMNT players have racked up more assists than Pulisic in the team’s history. He’ll look to overtake both Cobi Jones (22) and Michael Bradley (23) by the end of this summer’s finals.
- USA vs Paraguay Bet 3: Christian Pulisic to assist at odds of 3.20 with Betano