Sarina Wiegman’s side are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Italy, but both teams have scored in five of their last six fixtures.
| Euro 2025 Semi-Final Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| England W to Beat Italy W & Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 3.70 |
| Alessia Russo Anytime Goalscorer | 2.50 |
| Germany W vs Spain W (Draw) | 4.62 |
| Alexia Putellas Anytime Goalscorer | 4.50 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking for value in the England Women vs Italy Women semi
England’s Lionesses are somewhat fortunate to find themselves in the semi-finals of Euro 2025. Sarina Wiegman’s side were two goals down to Sweden in their quarter-final and deservedly so.
The Lionesses were second to every loose ball and appeared well off the pace, unable to deal with Sweden’s directness and physicality.
Yet, England showed tremendous spirit and resolve to battle back in the closing stages of the second half. Two goals in as many minutes hauled England level ten minutes from time.
The contest went to extra time and the obligatory penalty shoot-out. Despite plenty of nervy spot kicks, the Lionesses eventually prevailed to reach the last four.
Progress is what counts in tournament football. England Women are now in the last four, where they’ll face the Italians who should, on paper, be weaker opponents than Sweden.
Italy are ranked 13th in the women’s world rankings, while Sweden are currently sixth, only one place lower than the Lionesses.
Looking at the head-to-head data, the Lionesses haven’t lost to the Italians since the Cyprus Women Cup in 2012. Italy also defeated the Lionesses at Euro 2009, when England were reduced to ten players.
England’s most recent clash with Italy ended in a comfortable 5-1 friendly win last February.
However, clean sheets have been rare: England have only kept a clean sheet in two of their last eight meetings with Italy, going back to 2009. The Lionesses have also conceded in all but one of their four Euro 2025 games so far this tournament. Even the lowly-ranked Welsh group stage opponents managed to get on the scoresheet.
That’s why we’re happy to back England to win in 90 minutes, while covering the Italians to get on the scoresheet too. This is currently available at a probability of just 30.30%.
This seems incredibly low given the gulf in class between England and Italy on paper and the Lionesses’ propensity to give goals away in this tournament.
We’re also happy to back Alessia Russo to score at any time in this semi-final at a probability of just 40%. The Arsenal Women’s ace has only scored once in four games so far, which is below her current strike rate of 43.63% for the Lionesses. Russo has been a constant threat in most games and is due a goal.
Can the Germans halt the unstoppable Spaniards in the last four?
It’s still somewhat surprising that the German Women are still in the competition. After Kathrin Hendrich’s red card, the eight-time European champions were forced to play with ten players for over 80 minutes of their quarter-final with France.
Sjoeke Nusken’s 25th-minute equaliser gave the Germans something to hold onto after falling behind early – and they did just that.
German goalkeeper, Ann-Katrin Berger, was outstanding in goal from start to finish. She reeled off a string of fine saves to keep France at bay. Berger also pulled off the save of the tournament to prevent an embarrassing own goal.
The Germans battled through to extra time and eventually won in a tense penalty shoot-out. Berger once again emerged as the hero, making the all-important save to clinch a 6-5 penalty shoot-out victory.
Germany’s semi-final opponents are Spain, who have been in irresistible form so far in this tournament. They’ve scored 16 goals in four matches, conceding only three goals in the process.
Spain Women are heavy favourites with the bookmakers to beat Germany in normal time and reach the final.
Looking at the women’s world rankings, it’s hard to see why they are so heavily favoured over the Germans. There is little separating the two nations in the rankings, with Spain in second and Germany in third.
Germany are also unbeaten in their last seven clashes with Spain, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in six of those seven meetings.
Given how resolute the Germans proved against France, they have the steel and defensive shape to keep the Spaniards at bay. Germany beat Spain 2-0 in the last Euros, and also landed a narrow 1-0 win at last summer’s Olympic Games. Hence, the Germans have history on their side.
It’s hard to ignore how well the Spaniards have been playing, however, which is why we can’t bet on Spain losing in 90 minutes. The game could be tied after 90 minutes and enter extra time.
Spanish sensation, Alexia Putellas, has been in imperious form so far in this tournament. She’s scored three and provided four assists.
Putellas has spoken to the Spanish media, believing that she’s currently playing the best football of her career to date. The 2021 and 2022 Ballon d’Or Feminin winner has a strike rate of 27.62% for her country.
The betting markets currently give a probability of 27.78% for Putellas to score any time. However, given her supreme confidence and on-field swagger, we believe the likelihood of Putellas scoring is far greater than her historical strike rate. That’s why we’re backing her to find the net in Zurich.