Celtic were among the teams left frustrated by defensive opponents as the Champions League playoff ties commenced. That trend may continue next week.
| Champions League Playoffs Total Goals Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kairat vs Celtic - Under 2.5 | 2.28 |
| Qarabag vs Ferencvaros - Under 1.5 | 2.02 |
| Benfica vs Fenerbahce - Under 1.5 | 2.00 |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
High stakes but few goals
The rewards for participating in the league phase of the Champions League are significant. This makes the stakes incredibly higher for the clubs in this season’s playoff round.
Seven sides will qualify for the league phase draw which takes place on Thursday, 28th August. However, with two ties still goalless after cautious first legs, the identities of those teams will not be known any time soon.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that many of these ties have lacked action. In last season’s competition, 64% of matches across both legs in the Champions League playoff round ended with two or fewer goals.
That was in contrast to Europa League and Conference League playoff fixtures, where only 48% of matches at the same stage were low-scoring.
This year, Bodo/Glimt’s 5-0 first-leg victory over Sturm Graz and Crvena zvezda’s high-scoring clash with Pafos were exceptions to the Champions League trend.
However, six of the 14 teams in the play-off round had expected goals (xG) totals of less than 1.00 after the first leg. That includes all of the sides involved in the matches in Glasgow and Istanbul on Wednesday night.
Where to expect tight playoff second legs in the UCL
The heavyweight clash between Fenerbahce and Benfica already seems like it could go the distance. While their first meeting saw 22 shots, many were harmless efforts from range. There were no clear scoring chances in the match, with the combined xG tally being just 0.69.
With two-time Champions League winner Jose Mourinho in charge of the Turkish side, it is unlikely that the visitors will take big risks in Lisbon. Another low-scoring affair seems probable.
Despite being clear favourites, Celtic’s home clash with Kairat was not entertaining. They lacked creativity and could only create 0.53 xG in a fixture they were expected to dominate.
Brendan Rodgers’ side will make a long trip to Kazakhstan to play in a very evenly balanced match. Given how the first meeting went, it is unlikely that the Glaswegians will find it any easier over 3,500 miles away next week.
There was more action in Budapest, where Qarabag took a huge step towards qualifying with a 3-1 win over Ferencvaros. However, punters should be aware that the Azerbaijanis massively outperformed their xG total of 0.77.
They are not good enough to easily beat the Hungarian champions next week. With a place in the Champions League group stage so close, Gurban Gurbanov may instruct his team to defend their lead in Baku. Therefore, this is another match where there may be good value in backing a low-scoring encounter.