Aston Villa secured direct entry to the UCL last 16 by finishing in the top 8 of the league phase. How does their Premier League form compare?
Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
Brentford to Beat Aston Villa | |
Augsburg/Draw Double Chance vs Borussia Dortmund | |
Cercle Brugge Double Chance vs Club Brugge |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Post-UCL Domestic Struggles for Three Teams in the Last 16
After finishing in the top four last season, Aston Villa secured a direct entry into the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League. They have seized the opportunity and reached the knockout stages with relative ease.
However, this success has come at the expense of their 2024/25 Premier League campaign. Villa currently find themselves in tenth position, winning only 11 of their 28 fixtures. The congested nature of the top half means they still have a chance of finishing in the top four or five if they can regain last season’s form – but that doesn’t seem likely.
Unai Emery’s men have only won once after playing in the Champions League this season. In their eighth and final UCL game with Celtic, which they won 4-2, they put in an especially dull performance, losing 2-0 at relegation-threatened Wolves.
Villa aren’t the only team struggling with post-European fatigue in their domestic campaigns. German giants, Borussia Dortmund, are another team that have struggled to replicate their UCL form on German soil. Dortmund are also in tenth place in the German Bundesliga.
BVB have lost almost as many games (9) as they have won (10) this season, sitting six points adrift of the fourth and final UCL qualification spot for 2025/26. Niko Kovac’s men lost four times in the Bundesliga after their eight midweek UCL league phase games. They only managed to win once after their eighth and final league phase fixture against bottom club Heidenheim.
Belgian side, Club Brugge, have faced similar issues in the Belgian Pro League. After narrowly qualifying for the UCL last 16 play-offs, Brugge stunned Atalanta to reach the last 16.
Ironically, they face Aston Villa, with both teams struggling for domestic form ahead of their first leg in Brugge. Nicky Hayen’s side won only three of their Pro League games scheduled immediately after midweek UCL fixtures.
During their last 16 play-off battles with Atalanta, Club Brugge were also held to a disappointing 2-2 draw at struggling STVV, followed by a defeat to seventh-placed Standard and another draw with sixth-placed Gent. This has handed the domestic title initiative to Anderlecht, who sit nine points clear at the summit.
Should We Bet Against Villa, Dortmund and Club Brugge This Weekend?
After Club Brugge’s first-leg clash with Aston Villa, they have the Brugge derby at Cercle Brugge on Sunday lunchtime.
Nicky Hayen’s side are unbeaten in their last seven games with Cercle. However, the hosts are unbeaten in their last three Pro League games, and they are fighting for the points to avoid finishing in the bottom four. A double chance bet on Cercle Brugge/draw is always an option here.
Aston Villa return from Brugge this weekend to face Brentford on Saturday evening. The West London club are just four points and one position below Villa at the time of writing. The Bees have averaged 1.75 points per game in their last eight games, compared with Villa’s 1.25 points per game return over the same period.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford are also much more formidable at home than they are away. They average 1.71 points per game in front of their own fans compared with 1.08 points per game away. A straight bet on Brentford to win could be a value play here.
As for Borussia Dortmund, they have the benefit of being at home for the first leg of their last 16 UCL tie with Lille. Niko Kovac’s side are also at home in the Bundesliga on Saturday against Augsburg.
Dortmund haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last three meetings with Augsburg, who also sit just one place below BVB in the Bundesliga table. A double chance bet on draw/Augsburg could be another credible option here.