Our betting expert expects the hosts to secure smooth progress into the round of 16 with a convincing aggregate win.
Best bets for Real Madrid vs Benfica
- Real Madrid -1 Handicap at odds of 2.12 on Bet9ja
- Real Madrid to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 on Bet9ja
- Second half - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.73 on Bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 3-0 Benfica
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior x2, Kylian Mbappe
Vinicius Junior’s brilliant goal was the difference between the teams in the first leg in Lisbon. That match was overshadowed by allegations of racist abuse made by the Brazilian against Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni.
Tensions are high heading into the return clash at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real Madrid approach this game following a major La Liga setback over the weekend. They were beaten 2-1 at Osasuna, falling to second place behind Barcelona.
On Sunday, Benfica defeated AVS 3-0 in the Portuguese top flight. They’ve won five of their last seven matches across all competitions, including a 4-2 victory over Los Blancos in the league phase.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Benfica
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Asencio, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Benfica expected lineup: Trubin, Dahl, Araujo, Otamendi, Dedic, Barreiro, Rios, Schjelderup, Silva, Aursnes, Pavlidis
Los Blancos to ease into round of 16
Following last week’s controversial events, Real Madrid won’t lack motivation in the second leg. They’ve been inconsistent so far under Alvaro Arbeloa, recording seven wins and three defeats in all competitions since Xabi Alonso’s dismissal.
Notably, they’ve won five of those matches by margins of two or more goals. That includes a 6-1 win over Monaco in their only Champions League home match under Arbeloa.
Benfica have reason to believe their best chance in this tie has passed after losing the home leg. They were much less threatening in that match compared to the recent league-stage encounter. Their xG total was just 0.47, as they created no major chances, whereas Real Madrid recorded four.
The Spanish giants should finish the job on Wednesday, and they offer value with a -1 Handicap.
- Real Madrid vs Benfica Bet 1: Real Madrid -1 Handicap at odds of 2.12 on Bet9ja
Home attack to ruin Mourinho’s Bernabeu return
The biggest advantage for Real Madrid in recent weeks has been Vinicius's improved form. He scored again at El Sadar on Saturday, to record five goals in his last four appearances. That is helping to ease the pressure on Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 13 times in eight Champions League outings.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is also fit again and seems more like the player who shone for Liverpool. He’s expected to rotate back in as Los Blancos aim to defeat Jose Mourinho’s side.
The Portuguese club only barely advanced to this round after losing five of their opening seven fixtures. They conceded three goals against Qarabag and Newcastle in the league phase.
Only three teams could better Real Madrid’s average of 2.63 goals per game in the previous stage. They are at value to score at least three goals here to secure a convincing aggregate victory.
- Real Madrid vs Benfica Bet 2: Real Madrid to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 on Bet9ja
Second half to feature goals
With Mourinho in charge, Benfica will not adopt an overly offensive strategy in Madrid. However, they are likely to take risks throughout the match, suggesting quite an open second half.
Under Arbeloa, Real Madrid matches tend to produce more action after the interval. Since the change in the dugout, their games have featured an average of 2.3 second-half goals.
That is a logical trend given the pace of their attack. The likes of Vinicius and Mbappe should thrive if Benfica push forward and leave gaps late in the game.
Backing over 1.5 goals in the second half offers value. That bet is given an implied probability of 58.8%.
- Real Madrid vs Benfica Bet 3: Second half - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.73 on Bet9ja