Fiorentina once again find themselves down at the foot of the Serie A table. The division’s worst defence faces its best attack.
Best bets for Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
- Inter Milan -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.90 with 1xBet
- Marcus Thuram anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Inter Milan 3-1 Fiorentina
- Goalscorers prediction: Inter Milan: Thuram, Esposito, Dimarco - Fiorentina: Mastantuono
Serie A’s defending champions Inter Milan have made a rock-solid start to their 2026/27 Scudetto defence. They host third-bottom Fiorentina, seeking a fifth straight home win.
Cristian Chivu’s side have been in electrifying form in front of goal. They average three goals scored per game right now. That’s despite a recent injury to talisman Lautaro Martinez. Fortunately, Marcus Thuram has taken on the mantle in attack, ably supported by Pio Esposito.
Chivu will also be without the services of John Stones (thigh), Curtis Jones (muscle) and Benjamin Pavard (thigh) for the visit of Fiorentina this weekend.
Paolo Vanoli’s I Viola have endured another difficult campaign. Four points from their first seven games leaves them in the Serie A relegation zone. It’s an emerging trend for Fiorentina, who finished a lowly 15th last term, narrowly avoiding the drop.
Fiorentina have the leakiest defensive record in this season’s Serie A. They’ve conceded 17 goals in seven matches. Inter have won 20 of the last 35 meetings between the clubs, which doesn’t bode well for Vanoli’s men either.
Probable lineups for Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
Inter Milan expected lineup: Martinez, Bastoni, Akanji, Bisseck, Dimarco, Henrique, Barella, Zielinski, Sucic, Esposito, Thuram
Fiorentina expected lineup: De Gea, Jimenez, Viery, Pongracic, Dragusin, Ndour, Goncalves, Fagioli, Mastantuono, Njie, Pellegrino
Expect another goal fest at the San Siro
The Over 3.5 Goals line has landed in three of Inter’s four home games so far in the 2026/27 Serie A. Fiorentina have matched that rate in two of their four away fixtures.
Inter have scored 21 goals, and their xG (19.5) supports their dominance in the final third. Fiorentina ship 2.43 goals per game on average. However, their xG conceded stands at just 10.45. This suggests the standard of defending has been worse than the chances created against them.
Vanoli’s side have not simply sat back and focused on limiting the damage, either. They play a relatively expansive style, which aided their cause in the recent 4-2 win at Venezia. However, they were hammered 4-0 at Roma and lost 3-1 at home to Como. Inter have conceded nine goals despite their fine scoring rate. Backing four or more goals at a 51.28% implied probability looks like a fair bet.
- Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Bet 1: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
Inter’s quality to prove decisive
75% of Inter’s home wins have come by two-goal margins or greater. Fiorentina have already been taken apart by some of Serie A’s better sides, including Roma and Como. Inter sit above Roma and have outscored every other club in Italy.
Vanoli is likely to travel to the San Siro without Fabian Parisi and Arthur Atta. Fortunately, Franco Mastantuono can continue to play with his hand in a splint following recent surgery.
Fiorentina are unlikely to pose much of a threat at the San Siro. An early Inter goal could make life difficult for the visitors. Fiorentina’s fragile confidence and defensive shape will be exposed by the Scudetto holders. Inter average 7.3 shots on target per game. They’ve also missed 25 big chances - more than any other team - which suggests they should have scored more.
Backing an Inter win by 2+ goals at a 52.63% implied probability is the value bet from our Inter Milan vs Fiorentina predictions.
- Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Bet 2: Inter Milan -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.90 with 1xBet
Thuram steps up in Martinez’ absence
With Lautaro Martinez absent with a torn hamstring, Marcus Thuram is Inter’s man of the moment. The Frenchman has four Serie A goals and six goal contributions in total this season.
FotMob makes him the club’s joint-top performer with a 7.68 rating. He shares the top billing with centre-half Yann Bisseck.
Thuram’s shot volume underlines why we’re confident in his goalscoring abilities this weekend. He’s taking 4.6 shots per 90, hitting the target 1.7 times per 90. FotMob also credits him with 4.5 expected goals on target. Thuram has missed seven of Inter’s 25 big chances, so he should arguably have more than four goals to his name.
We can back him to find the net at a 57.14% implied probability. That’s his exact scoring rate so far this term, so it’s a fair bet, especially with Martinez sidelined.
- Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Bet 3: Marcus Thuram anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet