Spain are sitting comfortably at the top of League A, Group 3 of the 2026/27 Nations League. However, they won’t be at full strength for the trip to Split.
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Best bets for Croatia vs Spain
- Croatia +2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.00 with bet9ja
- Under 3.5 Goals at odds of 1.70 with bet9ja
- Both Teams to Score at odds of 1.85 with bet9ja
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Croatia 1-2 Spain
- Goalscorers prediction: Croatia: Matanović - Spain: Yamal, Oyarzabal
Croatia will host Spain at Stadion Poljud in Split on Tuesday night. This is the fourth round of matches in League A, Group 3 of the 2026/27 Nations League. Thetwo sides met only a week ago in Seville, with Spain winning 4-1.
In their last match, Croatia were humiliated 7-0 by England at home in Rijeka. It was the Croatia national team’s worst defeat in their history. Slaven Bilic’s men were already four goals down by the half time interval, and the Three Lions continued attacking in the second.
Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka both scored twice in that rout, while Jude Bellingham made three assists aside scoring himself. Croatia have now conceded 12 goals in just three games of this campaign.
In response to this fixture, Slaven Bilić has left Martin Pongračić, Lovro Majer, Ante Budimir and Dion Beljo out of his squad. More so, there are five more players in the squad that are just one booking from a suspension.
During Croatia’s debacle against England, Spain beat Czechia 3-1 on the same night as Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Mikel Merino scored. Luis De la Fuente made nine changes for that game and they still won comfortably. Spain are unbeaten in 41 matches at the moment. They lead the group with nine points from a possible nine. Croatia sit third on three points, above Czechia who are the only team in the group to lose all three games.
Probable lineups for Croatia vs Spain
Croatia Expected Lineup: Livaković; Perišić, Gvardiol, Vušković, Stanišić; Kovačić, Modrić, Ivanović; P. Sučić, L. Sučić; Matanović
Spain Expected Lineup: Simón; Pubill, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Olmo, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena
Bilić to strengthen the defence after the Rijeka debacle
Bilić will prioritise the back 4 above all else on Tuesday night. A 7-0 collapse against England demands a response in Split. Expect a deep block and a low tempo from Croatia.
Spain arrive with little incentive to chase goals. This is their fourth game in 11 days. They already have the group firmly under control with a 100% record. De la Fuente made nine changes against Czechia on Saturday. Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Álex Grimaldo all withdrew before that match, and Spain still won by scoring three.
Croatia need to try and avoid a two-goal defeat here. The idea is to back Croatia to avoid defeat by a two-goal margin or worse at an implied probability of 50%. The market is clearly uncertain that Spain will go hard in Split.
- Croatia vs Spain Bet 1: Croatia +2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.00 with bet9ja
Neither side has a huge reason to open up
This is the fourth match in 11 days for many. Spain are already nine points clear at the top of the group, and there is nothing left for them to prove. They’ll almost certainly be top of the group whatever the scoreline on Tuesday night.
De la Fuente is also managing a stretched squad. Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Álex Grimaldo all withdrew before Saturday, while Fabián Ruiz is away for the birth of his child.
Croatia will surely put everything in defence after conceding seven goals to England. Luka Modric said it was the first time he’d felt ashamed playing for Croatia. Damage control is the obvious plan in Split. More so, Croatia also have five players on a booking.
At an implied probability of 59%, we feel that Under 3.5 goals is the most obvious outcome here. Both sides' motivations point towards a lower-scoring contest rather than an open play match. In fact, this could be the best value bet from this week’s Croatia vs Spain predictions.
- Croatia vs Spain Bet 2: Under 3.5 Goals at odds of 1.70 with bet9ja
La Roja keep allowing goals even though they are winning
Spain are not as watertight as the results suggest. They have conceded in all three of their Nations League games this season. England managed to put two past Unai Simón, while Croatia and Czechia both got one apiece.
Croatia still have quality in the middle of the park. Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić should have most of the ball at their feet. The veteran pair will be desperate to right the wrongs of their heaviest ever loss in Rijeka.
The problem is who will be on the other end of those passes to finish. Bilić has left out Beljo and Budimir of this squad. Igor Matanović is the likely replacement up front to start and probably score. Backing both sides to score at a 54% implied probability looks fair rather than generous.
- Croatia vs Spain Bet 3: Both Teams to Score at odds of 1.85 with bet9ja