Our betting expert expects the home team to get on the scoresheet, but Real Madrid to safely advance into the next round.
Best bets for Talavera de la Reina vs Real Madrid
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.03 on 1xBet
- Both teams to score at odds of 2.06 on 1xBet
- Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 1.93 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Talavera de la Reina 1-3 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Talavera de la Reina: Gomez - Real Madrid: Mastantuono, G. Garcia, Rodrygo
Third-tier Talavera de la Reina upset Malaga of the Segunda Division to reach this stage. They warmed up for this high-profile tie with a 2-1 league win over Merida. However, they are just one place off the bottom of their section of the Primera Federacion.
Real Madrid head into this match after a much-needed 2-1 win at Alaves in La Liga. That result helped slightly ease the pressure on Xabi Alonso.
Los Blancos had won just two of their previous eight games in all competitions. The Copa del Rey is not a big priority for them, but Alonso surely cannot afford to lose this tie.
Probable lineups for Talavera de la Reina vs Real Madrid
Talavera de la Reina expected lineup: Gonzalez, Barreno, Molina, Lopez, Rodriguez, Arroyo, Capo, Doncel, Montero, Di Renzo, Gomez
Real Madrid expected lineup: Lunin, F. Garcia, Huijsen, Rudiger, Asencio, Guler, Tchouameni, Ceballos, Rodrygo, G. Garcia, Mastantuono
Expect goals in third-round tie
Rotation is to be expected from Real Madrid, particularly in attacking areas where squad depth allows for changes. Gonzalo Garcia, Franco Mastantuono, Endrick, and Brahim Diaz will all be eager to make an impression. Rodrygo also appears set to start, and he’s fresh from a key goal in Vitoria at the weekend.
Those players should all have sufficient quality to trouble third-tier opposition. Talavera de la Reina are in serious danger of relegation, which makes their cup run a surprise. They are ranked 15 places below Real Madrid’s B team in Group A of the Primera Federacion.
The hosts have gone nine matches without a clean sheet in all competitions. It’s therefore hard to see them keeping even a second-string Real Madrid attack quiet for long. Backing over 3.5 goals with an implied probability of 51.3% seems to offer value.
- Talavera de la Reina vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.03 on 1xBet
Injury-ravaged Madrid defence to concede
The home side could find the net at least once. They’ll certainly take encouragement from Real Madrid’s significant defensive selection issues.
Alonso had to cope without seven defenders against Alaves at the weekend. He’ll still be without Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Ferland Mendy on Wednesday night.
Those issues have contributed to Real Madrid’s failure to keep clean sheets in recent weeks. They’ve shut their opponents out in just one of their last seven matches in all competitions. Los Blancos conceded 11 times in total across those games.
Talavera have shown their best attacking form in the Copa del Rey this term. They’ve scored six goals across the opening two rounds. Given that, backing both teams to score with an implied probability of 47.6% seems appealing.
- Talavera de la Reina vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Both teams to score at odds of 2.06 on 1xBet
Action-packed second half in store
Copa del Rey ties often see the minnows keep it tight in the first half, only to tire after the break. This match could certainly go that way, with Real Madrid likely to leave plenty of attacking quality on the bench.
Alonso hopes he won’t need to turn to that. However, with his job potentially on the line, the Basque coach won't take any chances. If the visitors are not ahead by the interval, substitutes are likely to be introduced soon after.
Real Madrid’s defence has also been more vulnerable in the second half of games this season. 69% of the goals they’ve conceded in La Liga have come after the interval.
Given that, backing the second half to produce the highest number of goals appears to offer value. That’s given an implied probability of 51.3%.
- Talavera de la Reina vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 1.93 on 1xBet