Only four teams have a superior Premier League defensive record to Sunderland’s in 2025/26. Can they find more goals to be clear of relegation danger?
| 2025/26 Sunderland Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Top Promoted Team | 1.83 |
| To Be Relegated | 2.50 |
| To Finish Bottom | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Have Sunderland just been lucky or can they stay the course?
After the Black Cats secured promotion to the Premier League via the playoffs, most expected the Wearside club to be fighting at the foot of the table in 2025/26.
Few could have anticipated just how ambitious they would be in the transfer market. The signing of experienced Swiss international midfielder, Granit Xhaka, stunned the league.
Eyebrows were raised that a newly promoted side could entice a player away from Bayer Leverkusen, a team that have been German champions in recent seasons.
Xhaka was one of 15 new faces in total to come through the door at the Stadium of Light. Regis Le Bris has added plenty of power and pace into his midfield and attacking ranks.
The likes of Simon Adingra, Noah Sadiki, Brian Brobbey and Habib Diarra can all hold their own physically at this level.
There’s no doubt that Sunderland were fortunate to get a couple of favourable fixtures to start the season. They defeated West Ham on the opening day, before another home win over Brentford.
Despite losing to fellow promoted side Burnley between those victories, the Black Cats showed their durability through September.
They conceded just once in three games against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, three sides that had impressive campaigns in 2024/25.
Defence has been a major issue among the sides relegated from the EPL in the last two seasons. All relegated sides in 2023/24 and 2024/25 conceded at least 78 goals, averaging more than two conceded per game.
Any team that concede 60 goals or fewer is said to have an 83% chance of staying up. At their current trajectory, the Black Cats would concede just 33 goals, one fewer than Arsenal achieved last season.
Of course, seven games is a small sample size. Nevertheless, conceding just six goals in this period gives Le Bris’ men some breathing space if they hit a rough patch.
They would need to concede 72 goals in 31 games for their defensive record to compare with recently relegated sides. Their strong start has certainly given them the ideal platform to build on.
Plenty of opportunities to pick up points through October and November
There are plenty of opportunities for Sunderland to add more points once the October international break concludes. They return to home soil to entertain a Wolves side that’s still marooned at the foot of the table.
They then travel to Club World Cup champions Chelsea, who are by no means at full strength right now.
In November, they only face one genuine title contender in the shape of Arsenal. However, three out of their four November matches are on home soil. They entertain Everton before Arsenal and in-form AFC Bournemouth at the end of the month. That’s sandwiched by a trip to Marco Silva’s Fulham on Saturday, 22 November.
December appears very daunting with back-to-back trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, followed by the first Tyne-Wear derby of the season. The next six league games may define whether Sunderland have what it takes to stay up or, better still, make inroads on the top half.
The betting markets currently believe there is as much chance of them finishing in the top half as finishing bottom.
This suggests they are more likely to finish somewhere in between. Most devoted Sunderland fans would’ve happily taken a safe bottom-half finish this term.
Scoring more goals would certainly give them an even better chance of pushing for a top-half place. They currently have an xG of only 6.4 from seven games, the fourth worst in the league so far.
Their defence has averaged the most clearances per game of any Premier League side this season. Whether that level of reliability can be maintained over the remaining 31 fixtures remains to be seen.
