Data deep dive shows if Sunderland’s incredible start can continue

We’ve dug into this historical data to see if Sunderland - and some of the other newly-promoted teams across Europe - can sustain their fast starts.

A historic start for Sunderland

It’s been an extraordinary start to the season for Sunderland and manager Régis Le Bris. It’s the Black Cats’ first year in the Premier League since the 2016/17 campaign. They’re only five points away from matching their season total that year.

The Black Cats are almost halfway to the magic 40-point mark that is often associated with Premier League safety. 26 would have been enough for survival last season, and 27 would have done it the year before. Given how poorly some teams have started this campaign, Le Bris’s side is on the right path for safety.

It’s exceptional for Sunderland, but it also stands out from other newly-promoted clubs. This is the second-best start for a newly-promoted club since the launch of the Premier League in 1992-93.

Their return of 19 points from 11 games is surpassed only by Hull City in the 2008/09 season. Sunderland average 1.73 points per game (PPG) after 11 games. Hull were at 1.82 PPG in their record-setting start in 2008/09.

Sunderland’s defensive solidity separates them from most of their other sides on this list. The Mackems have conceded just 10 goals, the second-fewest of any newly-promoted Premier League side after 11 matches. There has been a slight overperformance on their expected goals against (xGA) of 13.35, but that is still amongst the best in the division.

What the betting data says about Sunderland

Sunderland signed off the international break in style with that comeback against league leaders Arsenal. The dramatic late equaliser secured a shock win for the Black Cats. They were the big underdogs, and that point may prove invaluable.

However, their biggest upset of the season came last month when they won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge. The bookmakers estimated around a 14% chance of the Black Cats winning away at Chelsea. Sunderland secured a famous 2-1 win.

Betting data is a good way to assess Sunderland’s overperformance. It shows just how much they have outperformed expectations, and where they sit in the Premier League annals.

If you backed Sunderland to win every game they played in the Premier League this season with a single unit in each, you would have a return of +10.92 units. The shock win at Chelsea accounted for a large portion of that. That is the third-best for a newly-promoted Premier League side since the turn of the millennium.

Data based on single stakes betting on the 1X2 market. Best odds available since the 2000/01 season.

Backing Bolton with a single unit in each of their first 11 matches in the 2001-02 season would have earned +14.52 units. However, the best-performing newly-promoted side on this metric is Hull in 2008-09. Backing them with a single unit in their first 11 would have earned a whopping +30.42 units. Eye-catching wins over Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle and West Ham account for that.

Breaking a recent trend

This strong start from the Black Cats makes a stark contrast with recent newly-promoted clubs. We’ve had two consecutive Premier League seasons in which all three newly-promoted sides went straight back down in their debut campaign. That has never happened before in the Premier League.

The data made for grim reading at this time last year and the year before. Only four newly-promoted Premier League teams have ever earned just four points after 11 fixtures. Three of those teams were playing in the top flight in the last two seasons. Southampton did it last campaign. Both Sheffield United and Burnley achieved the feat the season prior.

Of the 10 best starts to a Premier League season for a newly-promoted side, only two of them have occurred in the last 10 seasons. Sheffield United’s 2019/20 campaign was the only other to make the list.

Newly-promoted teams across Europe’s big five leagues

It’s worth investigating whether this is a unique problem in English football or if it applies across the rest of Europe. In the interest of accuracy, we kept the data parameters consistent. We’ve only looked at newly-promoted teams to La Liga, Ligue 1, Serie A and the Bundesliga since 1992. Figures were adjusted to account for the introduction of three points for a win.

Of the sides promoted from the Segunda Division to La Liga this season, Elche have the best record so far. However, their start barely gets into the top 30 for a newly-promoted La Liga club.

The picture is even worse in Ligue 1. 38 newly-promoted Ligue 1 sides have made a better start to their first season than 2025/26’s best performer, Paris FC. Their figure of 1.16 PPG is usually enough to stay in the top flight, but it’s hardly an eye-catching points return.

FC Koln are the best-performing Bundesliga newbie this season. They’re comfortably in midtable with 14 points from 10. However, that’s only enough for a 20th-place finish in the ranking of newly-promoted Bundesliga sides since 1992.

In relative terms, the second-best-performing newly-promoted side in Europe’s top five leagues behind Sunderland are Sassuolo. They sit comfortably in the top half and have already taken maximum points from games against Lazio and Atalanta. 16 points from 11 is the 14th-best start for a newly-promoted Serie A side. It is, however, the best start to a season for a side coming up from Serie B in the past decade.

History suggests this isn’t sustainable

So what became of these high-flying newly-promoted sides? Hull had the best record in 2008-09 and were the most profitable. However, things soon unravelled despite their strong start. The Tigers had 20 points at this stage of the season that year, averaging 1.82 PPG. In the 27 games that followed, that figure fell to just 0.56 PPG. The Tigers finished 17th that season, avoiding relegation by just one point.

There is still hope for the fast-starting newly-promoted Premier League sides. Of the nine teams with the best starts at this stage, four finished in the top half. However, seven of those nine teams saw their points per game average decrease.

The trend of newly-promoted teams struggling after strong starts is even more evident across other European leagues since 1992/93.

Over that time period, all of the 10 fastest starters in La Liga saw their points-per-game average drop after Matchday 11. Seven still secured top-half finishes, but Levante were relegated despite winning six of their first 11 games in 2004/05.

Each of the 10 best newly-promoted clubs in both Serie A and the Bundesliga regressed. However, none of those teams were relegated, and Kaiserslautern went on to win the 1997/98 German title. They remain the only newly-promoted club to have won the Bundesliga.

Meanwhile, in Ligue 1, eight of the 10 best starts by newly-promoted clubs since 1992/93 ended in top-half finishes. Despite that, all of those sides still saw their points-per-game averages dip after the first 11 matches. The highest finishers were Monaco, who finished second on their return to the top flight in 2013/14.

Will Sunderland, Sassuolo and Elche break the trend?

Another noticeable trend across Europe is that newly-promoted sides with strong defences tend to cope best. Sunderland have let in just 0.91 goals per game so far in the Premier League. They are currently on course to join a list of just seven newly-promoted clubs to finish with a positive goal difference.

However, there are still 27 matches to go, and history strongly suggests their average of 1.73 points per game will drop. That already appears to be correctly priced into the betting markets. They are given an implied probability of 80% of finishing in the bottom half.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The Mackems should certainly have enough points on the board and enough quality in their squad to stay up. That may not be the case for some of Europe’s other newly-promoted clubs.

Cremonese are currently doing well in 11th place in Serie A. However, they are massively overperforming their xGD (expected goal difference) of -7.0, the worst record in the Italian top flight. A significant regression seems almost inevitable, and they can be backed to go down with an implied probability of 23.1%.

In La Liga, Elche’s decline after a very impressive start has already begun. They’ve gone five without a win, creating 1.0 xG or fewer in each of those games.

As teams begin to figure out how to counter their possession-based style, they may continue to slide down the table. Eder Sarabia’s side seem to offer value as an outside bet for relegation, with an implied probability of 20%. The research shows that squad quality usually evens out.