Little was expected from Sevilla this season, following a 17th-place finish and a difficult summer, but they’ve started well under Matias Almeyda.
| Sevilla in La Liga | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sevilla to beat Mallorca | 1.864 |
| Sevilla to beat Real Sociedad | 3.86 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Are Sevilla the real deal?
The Andalusian club cashed in on star players Dodi Lukebakio and Loic Bade in the summer. They also let Stanis Idumbo join Monaco, but those exits were primarily needed to balance the books.
Dependent solely on loans and free transfers to bolster their squad, their recruitment was largely uninspiring. 36-year-olds Cesar Azpilicueta and Alexis Sanchez were the most recognisable arrivals, but both players are clearly past their primes. Alexis failed to register a goal or an assist in 13 appearances in Serie A last term for Udinese.
Matias Almeyda was brought in as the club’s seventh permanent head coach in the space of just three years. Sevilla lost their opening two La Liga fixtures, adding to the sense of disappointment that was building at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan.
However, the Argentine deserves credit for quickly turning things around. He has constructed a team that is functional and more physical than Garcia Pimienta’s side was last year. Four wins from six matches suggest they are on the right track.
They were outstanding against Barca, dominating the first half to race into a 2-0 lead and miss several other big chances. Four days on from their defeat to PSG, the Catalans couldn’t match Sevilla’s energy levels on a very hot October day in Seville.
However, the underlying data from across the season suggests bettors should still be cautious. Prior to the Barca game, when they brilliantly exposed Hansi Flick’s high line, Almeyda’s side had created just 5.2 xG in seven matches. Their current tally of 13.4 xG allowed is also the fourth-worst record in the Spanish top flight.
Favourable fixtures point to fresh success
There has been a tense atmosphere at the Sanchez-Pizjuan in recent years, with fans directing their anger at the board. Sunday’s victory was a throwback to better times, with a cracking atmosphere making it even tougher for a tired Barca side.
That positive energy should at least spill over into Sevilla’s next fixture, a home clash with rock-bottom Mallorca. They’re given an implied probability of 54.1% of winning that game. Those odds appear favourable, given how unimpressive the Balearic Islanders have been.
There are problems in the Mallorca dressing room, with coach Jagoba Arrasate stripping Dani Rodriguez of the captaincy after a public falling out. Their football has been one-dimensional, with targetman Vedat Muriqi the only regular source of goals. They’ve also allowed 14.7 xG, with even their usually reliable defence crumbling.
Next up is a trip to second-bottom Real Sociedad, with Sevilla available to win that game with an implied probability of just 25%. Having taken three points from each of their last three away games, they are good value at those odds. La Real are struggling, with five defeats from their opening eight fixtures.
Sevilla, therefore, have a really good chance of extending their positive form over the next two matches. However, there are still some serious limitations to their squad, and they’re unlikely to retain their current top-six status over the course of 38 games.
There are perhaps parallels with Osasuna, who stunned Barcelona 4-2 at exactly the same stage last season. They went on to win just three of their next 22 league fixtures after upsetting the weakened leaders.