The current average of 2.22 goals per game indicates the 2025/26 campaign could become lowest scoring since the expansion to 20 teams.
| Serie A’s goal drought options | Odds |
|---|---|
| Inter Milan to win the title | 1.82 |
| Lautaro Martinez (Inter) for Golden Boot | 5.00 |
| Torino and Como to draw | 3.20 |
| Verona vs Parma - Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
There’s a goal drought in Serie A
The Serie A has featured 17 goalless draws after 11 matchdays, which is as many as the Premier League, Bundesliga, and La Liga combined. So far, 16 of the 20 teams have scored fewer than 15 goals, and all but six are underperforming relative to their xG. In contrast, the 2024/25 campaign has seen 54 goals by this point.
Based on the xG statistics, teams in Serie A were expected to score 22.59 more goals. Additionally, Inter Milan are the only team in the entire league that has an average of more than two goals per game. I Nerazzurri lead the way in almost every important metric.
The last time the Italian top-flight season ended with an average lower than this year’s 2.22 goals was in the 1988/89 season, which averaged 2.11 goals. It’s also worth noting that that season only featured 18 teams. The low scoring is not just the result of poor finishing, either, as no team have a higher average of 1.93 xG per fixture. This means that they’re not creating enough chances.
Of course, fans will be hoping to see improvement, and the season is still at an early stage. However, there are more midfielders among the top scorers than usual, and strikers need to start contributing more. The departure of players such as last year’s top scorer, Mateo Retegui, hasn’t helped, while the form of other players hasn’t been good enough.
Where bettors could take advantage
The primary focus is on Inter Milan. Cristian Chivu’s side may have the same number of points as Roma, and only top the standings due to goal difference, but they’re clearly the team to beat. Not only do they have the highest xG in the league (1.93), but are also outperforming it (+0.43).
Although their defense has been inconsistent, they already have three players who have scored four or more goals. Since other teams are struggling either to score or to gain points, Inter appear to be a strong early contender. Scoring goals is essential for winning matches, and the Nerazzurri are the only ones that are scoring consistently. Additionally, they’re also one of only two teams that haven’t drawn yet.
Meanwhile, Inter’s goalscoring form makes a strong case when it comes to the Golden Boot. Their midfielder, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini, currently lead the Capocannoniere race, but others aren’t far behind. It is highly likely that Lautaro Martinez and Ange-Yoan Bonny will score plenty this season to add to their current total of four each.
Elsewhere, some interesting matchups are coming up due to the league’s general lack of decisive results. On Monday, Torino host Como in a match between two teams that have collectively drawn 11 games already this season. The home side have drawn three in a row, and the visitors have drawn two, with four of those five games ending 0-0.
Another game worth watching, though possibly not for fun, is Hellas Verona vs Parma. They’re two of the lowest-scoring teams in Serie A, and also amongst the biggest under-performers in terms of xG. 64% of their games have ended with under 2.5 goals scored, and this match could feature the same outcome.