The Club World Cup champions were given a 25% chance of finishing in the top two at the start of the season. Have their chances improved since then?
| 25/26 EPL Top 2 Finish Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.06 |
| Manchester City | 1.48 |
| Chelsea | 5.00 |
| Liverpool | 5.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Blues the value pick
Chelsea's chances of finishing in the top two this season have decreased from 25% to 22.22%, according to the betting markets. That decline in odds is happening despite the fact that Enzo Maresca’s men are currently in second place, one point above third-placed Manchester City.
It seems strange that the Blues’ odds are in this situation, as they currently top the xG table with 22.47 goals. That’s a difference of only 0.53 to their 23-goal tally so far this season.
Interestingly, Arsenal and Manchester City are significantly exceeding their xG currently. Arsenal are currently outperforming their xG by 2.74 goals, while City are outperforming by 2.00 goals. Moreover, Chelsea have registered more shots (173) and more shots on target (67) than City (61).
There is one reason why the betting markets may be reluctant to reduce Chelsea’s odds for a Top 2 Finish. They currently occupy fourth spot in the xGA table, having conceded 3.27 goals more than their defensive metrics suggest they should have.
The fact that they have conceded three more goals than expected and still occupy second place is a huge positive for Maresca’s men. In fact, if they bounce back to their strong defensive form over time, they could become an even more dominant force in the division.
There are positive signs that the Blues’ early-season disciplinary issues are being resolved. The likes of Sanchez, Chalobah, and Delap received red cards earlier in the campaign. However, they’ve averaged only 1.66 bookings in their last six EPL matches.
The Blues clearly prefer to take the initiative. They’ve scored first in their last seven successive league games. Only league leaders Arsenal have a better record after taking the lead in 2025/26.
Their recent form is also encouraging, having won three consecutive games without conceding a goal for the first time in three and a half years. Moreover, they do not rely on only one player for goals, as 11 different players have found the net. All of this has been achieved without their injured star playmaker, Cole Palmer.
Chelsea have developed a young, fit, and mobile squad. Their average age is just 23.3 years old, making them the youngest EPL team for three consecutive seasons.
The schedule of upcoming matches suggests that a clearer picture of Chelsea’s capability to finish in the top two will emerge by 4 January. Their next game is a London derby at home to Arsenal, a team they’ve defeated only once across their last 11 meetings. They then face newly promoted Leeds and Bournemouth, followed by two improving teams in Everton and Newcastle.
Maresca faces off with Guardiola on Sunday, 4 January, after which their title credentials will be clearly established.
Can City be ignored?
It’s still too early to dismiss the potential of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. However, scoring goals has become an issue for them in the last 12 months.
In 22/23 and 23/24, when City clinched back-to-back EPL titles, they scored 94 and 96 goals, respectively. Last season, they managed only 72 goals finishing third, 13 points behind eventual champions Liverpool.
So far this season, City have an average of two goals per game. This would equate to 76 goals over a full season, which is still significantly lower than their output in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns.
There is a genuine sense that City have become too dependent on Erling Haaland for their goals. The Norwegian is in fine form this season, having scored 14 goals in 12 appearances. However, no other City player has scored more than once.
It is positive to see the goals being distributed among eight other City players. However, Haaland has scored six more than all of those players combined.
Haaland was rested for City’s Champions League game with Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday night. This is a game that City lost 2-0 on home soil, as Leverkusen achieved a comfortable victory.
It’s also worth noting that City have lost three of their last four EPL matches when Haaland has failed to score. Therefore, there are way more question marks over the City squad than Chelsea’s currently.