The Red Devils are fourth in the Premier League after 22 matches and appear revitalised. Today, we examine their chances of finishing the job by May.
| Manchester United Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To beat Fulham | 1.62 |
| To beat Tottenham | 1.71 |
| Top four finish | 2.25 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Carrick’s United as top-four contenders
Manchester United has gone through a turbulent period recently. Ruben Amorim was fired, Darren Fletcher came in as immediate interim, and then Michael Carrick took charge. The Red Devils urgently required a positive start under their former midfielder, and his impact was immediate.
Carrick secured a notable 2-0 home win over Manchester City, followed by an even more surprising victory over league leaders Arsenal, at the Emirates. Given that the Gunners hadn’t lost at home since May, this victory significantly bolstered Carrick’s reputation. Consequently, the ex-England international is now the bookies’ favourite to retain the managerial position for the 2026/27 campaign.
It’s not hard to see why, either, after beating the Premier League’s top two. United now have only three remaining fixtures against the current top six, two of which will be played at Old Trafford. They'll be confident of winning many of their fixtures, and good results will keep Carrick as the primary choice for the permanent role.
Their upcoming schedule includes games against Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford, where they aim to capitalize on home advantage to secure two victories. Subsequent matches against West Ham United, Everton, and Crystal Palace present further opportunities for the Red Devils to accumulate points. While they have seen an immediate improvement since Carrick’s arrival, their fellow challengers’ form is patchy.
The gap to the top three—Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa—remains substantial. However, securing a top-four finish has become a realistic and increasingly likely goal for Manchester United.
Why the Red Devils have a chance
Statistically, United have the second-highest xG in the PL (41.3) and are the third-highest-scoring team in the division. While they’ve struggled defensively, there are clear signs of improvement under the current boss.
They allowed no significant scoring opportunities (0.45 xG) against City, and restricted Arsenal to less than 0.4 xG from open play. With five goals scored in two games, United have been efficient in attack. If they can tighten up their defence, they should really be able to progress.
Currently, the team concede an average of 1.48 goals per game, which is insufficient for a side aiming for the top four. The next few games will determine if their recent defensive success was a matter of fortune or tactical improvement. If it’s the latter, United could be in very good shape, given their current goalscoring form.
Meanwhile, Liverpool are really struggling, so they could soon fall out of contention for a top-four spot. While Chelsea have started strongly under Liam Rosenior, they remain stretched by competing in multiple tournaments. The chasing teams, spanning from 7th to 13th place, are separated by only four points, but none of them are currently in form.
Given these circumstances, Carrick’s United have a strong chance to finish their 2025/26 campaign strongly. Prior to Carrick’s appointment, defeat to Brighton and Hove Albion ended any hopes elsewhere, allowing the team to focus entirely on their league performance. They have the players, and the current manager is capable of maximizing their potential.
While it would be naive to get carried away after two games, they have clearly established a higher standard for the remainder of the season. Roy Keane may be skeptical of Carrick being in charge after May. However, if current results continue, then he may be in the minority. Achieving a top-four finish after everything this season would be a major achievement, and it seems entirely possible currently.