The Blues won’t have to juggle Europa and the EPL this season. Will this allow Xabi Alonso to build a side capable of winning the Premier League?
| Chelsea Premier League betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chelsea to finish top 2 | 4.50 |
| Chelsea to finish top 4 | 1.83 |
| Chelsea to finish top 5 | 1.57 |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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A chance to close the gap
Chelsea finished 10th in the 2025/26 Premier League and head into the new campaign without any European commitments. Can Xabi Alonso use that clearer schedule to close a 13-point gap to fourth-placed Aston Villa? In doing so, the Blues would reclaim a place in the Champions League next season.
It is the first time since 2022/23 that Chelsea have failed to qualify for Europe. Given the riches spent in recent years, the club have responded by handing Alonso a remit that stretches well beyond team selection. He arrived at Cobham tasked with overhauling the club's culture and decision-making process. The Spaniard does so with a fixture list that his rivals near the top of the table cannot match.
The numbers Chelsea can build on
Chelsea’s 10th-place finish last season was disappointing, but their underlying numbers were more positive. They collected 52 points from 14 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats, scoring 58 goals and conceding 52. Yet, their 64.45 expected goals ranked fourth in the division, behind only Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United.
It suggests Chelsea were not playing like a typical mid-table side in attacking terms. The problem was that decent chance creation did not translate cleanly enough into points. That is the gap Alonso has to close rather than rebuild from scratch.
Last season's workload also stretched beyond the league. Chelsea had to navigate 10 Champions League matches made up of eight league-phase fixtures and two Round of 16 games against Paris Saint-Germain.
This meant extra midweek demands throughout the campaign - five of them being away trips throughout Europe. The absence of those matches in 2026/27 should give Alonso more room for training-ground work, recovery and tactical implementation.
It’s definitely not proof of a top-four finish. However, it’s a meaningful change for a manager arriving with a clear idea of how he wants his team to function.
Alonso’s reset goes beyond the dugout
Alonso's role extends beyond a simple touchline switch. He is Chelsea's manager rather than a conventional head coach. The early signs point to a wider reset around authority, squad-building and culture.
His message has been consistent, stressing the need for team spirit and a squad that combine players at different stages of their careers. This helps explain why Chelsea have leant further towards experienced faces this summer.
Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck, aged 36 and 35 respectively, bring 863 Premier League appearances between them.
Neither signing is likely to start every week, and both have been met with a degree of scepticism. Nevertheless, their signings seem to represent a deliberate shift away from a squad that have often leaned heavily towards youth under the current ownership.
Just as importantly, they suggest Alonso has a say in the recruitment process. He is not simply handed a squad.
That reset is worth taking seriously because of what came before it. You only have to look at Alonso's unbeaten domestic season with Bayer Leverkusen in 2023/24. Leverkusen registered the fewest goals conceded in the division and the second-most scored. It was a clear demonstration of what can happen when a manager has a clear method and the authority to impose it.
He followed it with a second-placed finish in 2024/25 before a short and unsuccessful spell at Real Madrid that ended in January. Reproducing Leverkusen's peak immediately in the Premier League would be an unreasonable expectation. However, Alonso’s underlying coaching credentials shouldn’t be questioned.
Capitalising on a lighter schedule
Chelsea's opportunity starts with a simple contrast. Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Liverpool all have Champions League commitments. Additionally, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Crystal Palace are in the Europa League, and Brighton are in the Conference League.
Across that group, the expanded European calendar means more travel, more rotation and fewer clean training weeks.
The league-phase format now demands eight matches before the knockout rounds rather than the six of the old group stage. The effects of the workload have been visible.
Manchester United's third-placed finish last season came in a campaign free of European football, six points clear of Villa and 11 clear of Liverpool.
By contrast, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest dropped into a relegation fight in 2025/26, with Spurs finishing 17th and Forest in 16th. Notably, Tottenham and Forest had qualified for Europe the previous season, presenting a demanding fixture schedule in 2025/26 where both struggled.
None of that is a rule. European football does not automatically damage everyone else, and empty midweeks do not guarantee Chelsea a top-four finish.
Chelsea finished 13 points behind Aston Villa in fourth and 19 behind Manchester United in third. Fewer midweek fixtures alone will not drag them back into the Champions League places.
Still, the margins below that top group were not huge. Brighton finished one place and one point above Chelsea despite the two clubs sharing a +6 goal difference. That’s a stark reminder that the hierarchy within the upper mid-table pack was hardly set in stone.
Why Chelsea offer value in the Premier League outrights
The market currently prices the top-four contenders in this order: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and then Chelsea. That fifth-favourite status is where the value case begins.
Manchester United are shorter than Chelsea despite facing exactly the reverse of last season's situation. Michael Carrick now has a Champions League campaign to absorb after a domestic-only schedule delivered third place.
Meanwhile, there are question marks surrounding Liverpool. Andoni Iraola is a new appointment with no Champions League experience. The Spaniard is tasked with implementing a front-footed style in a squad weakened by the departures of Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson. There’s also a lengthy injury to Hugo Ekitike to contend with.
Chelsea need to climb back into the Champions League places. To do so, they need to turn 64.45 expected goals into more than the 58 goals they actually scored in the league last season.
They must also convert Alonso’s process into consistent results. If Chelsea manage that, they will prove far better than last season’s 10th-place finish implies.
Their current odds for a top 4 finish are generous, with a case that even a top 2 finish carries similar value using the same logic. If they fail, a season without European football will simply be a wasted opportunity.