Chelsea frequently concede goals against weak opponents and face a difficult schedule soon. Is their current league position sustainable?
| Chelsea Outright Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Top 4 Finish | 3.30 |
| Top 5 Finish | 2.25 |
| FA Cup Winner | 6.80 |
| Champions League Winner | 18.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Evaluating Liam Rosenior’s progress at Stamford Bridge
Despite Chelsea losing to Arsenal in their two-legged EFL Cup semi-final, Liam Rosenior’s tenure has featured several positive developments. He has guided the Blues into the 5th round of the FA Cup and achieved an impressive Champions League away win against Napoli. Additionally, he managed Chelsea’s come-from-behind win over London rivals, West Ham, at Stamford Bridge.
However, his young squad have occasionally displayed defensive weaknesses. This is something that was evident in their most recent home league games against newly promoted sides Leeds and Burnley.
They surrendered a two-goal lead against Leeds, conceding twice within a six-minute period during the second half. The match against Burnley was also firmly under Chelsea's control after Joao Pedro secured a lead in the fourth minute. However, a second-half red card for Wesley Fofana allowed the visitors to equalize the score late in the game.
Despite these minor incidents, Chelsea’s defensive record remains superior to other teams. They’ve conceded four fewer goals than Liverpool and six fewer than Manchester United and Brentford.
According to Opta’s expected points (xPTS) table, Chelsea should currently be 3rd rather than 5th in the Premier League. In fact, their xPTS (46.3) places them only one victory behind second-placed Manchester City, who have an xPTS of 49.8.
In reality, Chelsea’s actual points total is only one point lower than their expected figure, suggesting their results generally reflect their performances. This data also highlights that Manchester City have overperformed their xPTS total by six points.
A closer inspection of Chelsea’s expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA) reveals potential areas of concern. Their xGF suggests the team should have scored four more goals than they actually did. Conversely, their xGA of 37.4 indicates that Chelsea "deserved" to concede six more goals than they did.
This combination of overperforming in defence and underperforming in attack is often unsustainable, particularly if the statistics begin to return to their seasonal averages.
The Blues’ tough schedule favours other Champions League contenders
If Chelsea experience a regression toward their statistical averages in xG or xGA, their upcoming schedule appears to be a likely period for this to occur.
The Blues’ next three Premier League matches involve away trips to league leaders Arsenal and 3rd-placed Aston Villa, followed by a home fixture against Newcastle United. Additionally, they face a potentially difficult FA Cup 5th-round match against Wrexham in between those fixtures. A defeat to the Red Dragons could derail Rosenior’s ambitions of lifting a trophy this season.
Following the Newcastle match, Chelsea face another demanding series of league games. They travel to Everton before hosting consecutive home matches against Manchester City and Manchester United. These six fixtures will serve as a definitive test of Chelsea’s ability to finish in the top four.
The primary concern for Chelsea is that their direct rivals have, at least statistically, easier schedules in the coming weeks. Brentford, who are in 7th place, face Burnley, Wolves, and Leeds in three of their next four games.
Liverpool’s upcoming schedule is even more concerning for the Blues. The Reds face teams ranked 9th or lower in their next seven matches, starting with three games against opponents ranked 18th, 20th, and 16th, respectively.
This provides Liverpool with a significant opportunity to establish a points advantage over Rosenior’s squad. Meanwhile, Manchester United’s excellent form makes their upcoming fixtures appear very favourable.
The Red Devils host Crystal Palace next, who are currently facing uncertainty regarding the future of manager Oliver Glasner. They face their toughest test yet. United will travel to Newcastle, followed by home matches against Aston Villa and Leeds, with a visit to Bournemouth in between.
By 25th April, there is a real possibility that Manchester United and Liverpool could clinch 4th and 5th positions in the Premier League table.
If qualification for European competition via the league becomes unlikely, Rosenior may prioritise the Champions League as a route to qualify for next season.
Chelsea demonstrated their ability to compete with Europe’s elite by winning the Club World Cup last summer.
The Blues are currently the eighth favourites to lift the Champions League in May. While they finished sixth in the league phase, it is worth noting that their goal-scoring output was the joint-second-lowest among the top eight.