Enzo Maresca’s Man City need time to adjust to a new coach, which makes Arsenal the value pick to win the league, while Chelsea are dark horses.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League Outright Winner | Arsenal | 2.25 |
| Premier League Outright Winner | Chelsea | 9.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Manchester City have cause for concern
Manchester City made a worrying start to life under Enzo Maresca, losing 3-0 to Arsenal in the Community Shield. The result demonstrated the Gunners’ superiority to City ahead of the Premier League season. This has raised questions about the Cityzens’ ability to compete for the title without Pep Guardiola in charge.
City had more of the ball and completed far more passes, but Arsenal still created better chances. The champions were more efficient in front of goal and in complete control across the 90 minutes. Overall, the result sharpens the early Premier League title case for Mikel Arteta’s side.
Not the ideal start
Enzo Maresca must have expected his first competitive game at the helm to go much better than it did. It took Arsenal just 25 seconds to carve through the City defence and take a 1-0 lead at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff. The concern for the Cityzens is that Arsenal never loosened their grip on the game.
The performance data made the defeat appear more troubling for City than just a routine opening-match loss. Arsenal generated 2.16 xG (expected goals) to City’s 1.12 despite having only 41% possession and completing 352 passes to City’s 519. Maresca’s men had plenty of the ball but did far less with it, despite chasing the game from the first minute.
It was a sharp, efficient display from the champions, and a flat one from a City side still trying to find form under a new manager. Maresca pointed to conceding early as a moment that affected the game and admitted there were still many things to improve. Ruben Dias was similarly blunt, calling the display not good enough while also accepting that rough edges are part of a transition.
One Community Shield match doesn’t settle a title race, and City still have enough quality to improve over the season. They’ve spent big in the summer, especially with the acquisition of Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest, but they’ve lost midfield general Rodri to Barcelona. To put his presence into context, City won 74.1% of their Premier League games with him, compared to 61.9% without him.
They’ve averaged 2.37 points per game with the Spaniard controlling the midfield, and just 1.90 points per game without him. City’s performance in the Community Shield was disappointing, but it should only serve to wake up Maresca’s troops. As such, they should never be written off completely, considering the talent they have across the pitch.
Value is with Arsenal
The uncertainty at City is what makes Arsenal the smart outright play for the Premier League title. However, that’s not solely because of City’s transition period or the Gunners’ excellent performance at Cardiff. It’s rather based on the strength of their title-winning season. Mikel Arteta ended his team’s 22-year wait for the league title by finishing seven points ahead of his mentor, Pep Guardiola.
Their title triumph was by no means an accident, with Arsenal recording 79.87 expected points, 5.92 more than City’s. The Gunners dropped points in both league head-to-heads last season. However, last week’s victory and City’s transition could give Arsenal the upper hand in those fixtures this term. As a result, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see Arsenal extend their gap to City.
The case for Arsenal winning the league is strengthened by their back line. Arsenal conceded only 27 league goals last season from an xGA (expected goals against) of 28.3. To put it into perspective, that figure was the best in England and across Europe’s top five leagues. Additionally, their xGA of 0.74 goals per 90 was the fourth-lowest recorded figure in the division since the 2012/13 season.
They shouldn’t get carried away, as City finished last season with the league’s best attacking numbers. However, their transition period not only opens the way for the Gunners, but also for other title challengers around them, particularly Chelsea. The Blues secured a massive coup, bringing in Xabi Alonso as manager in the summer. They’ve also spent lavishly in the transfer market. With no European football commitments, Chelsea could be the dark horses to win the league.
Having said that, there is one thing that other teams lack that Arsenal don’t: continuity. Opta’s Supercomputer has already predicted an xPTS of 73.26 for the Gunners, compared to City’s 66.74.
Meanwhile, Chelsea are ranked sixth in that regard with an xPTS of 55.92. Consequently, Arsenal are the clearest early selection in the Premier League outright market.