Chelsea would secure a top eight finish with three points, while Napoli need a win to finish inside the top 24 and reach the UCL’s knockout playoffs.
Best bets for Napoli vs Chelsea
- Napoli (Draw No Bet) at odds of 2.33 with Bet9ja
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 with Bet9ja
- Scott McTominay Anytime goalscorer at odds of 4.25 with Bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Napoli 1-0 Chelsea
- Goalscorers prediction – Napoli: McTominay – Chelsea: N/A
Napoli have endured a difficult UCL League Phase, as they average just 0.25 points per game away from Naples. However, their home form has been impressive, boasting an average of 2.33 points per game in front of their fans. Moreover, they’ve only conceded one goal at home, compared to 11 in away games.
Romelu Lukaku is close to returning from injury for the Partenopei. However, the experienced Belgian may not be fit enough to face his former employers on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the former Chelsea playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is also injured, alongside Gilmour and Politano.
Chelsea sit eighth in the UCL League Phase by virtue of their perfect home record. They’ve won all four of their home matches. However, their away form has been more of an issue. They’ve averaged just 0.33 points per away game, which puts their hopes of automatic qualification for the last 16 at risk.
The Blues’ attacking form has been noticeably worse away from home. They’ve averaged 16.5 shots per game at home, versus 11.67 shots per game on the road. Boss Liam Rosenior’s side is likely to be without Cole Palmer for the trip to Naples. They decided not to include him in the starting lineup at Crystal Palace last weekend due to a thigh issue.
Probable lineups for Napoli vs Chelsea
Napoli expected lineup: Meret, Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Juan Jesus, Lobotka, Gutierrez, Spinazzola, McTominay, Elmas, Vergara, Højlund
Chelsea expected lineup: Sanchez, Gusto, Hato, Badiashile, Fofana, James, Caicedo, Fernandez, Neto, Garnacho, Delap
Conte to get one over on Chelsea
Chelsea are currently in the eighth and final spot to secure automatic entry into the last 16 of this season’s UCL. In fact, eight teams have recorded 13 points after seven games. Yet only three of those sides will avoid qualifying for the last 16 via the playoffs.
Liam Rosenior’s Blues will likely require all three points to maintain their top-eight status. This is especially true since sides below them, such as Barcelona and Man City, have very winnable games against FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray, respectively.
Napoli’s ambitions shouldn’t be overlooked, though. The defending Serie A champions currently sit one place outside the top 24, meaning they would miss out on the knockout playoffs. Even a point could suffice, but Antonio Conte’s men will fancy their chances to win at home, as they’re unbeaten in three UCL home games. They also average 2.40 points per home game in the Serie A this season.
Napoli are also underperforming their xG by 2.7 goals so far this League Phase campaign. That’s why there’s value in backing the Partenopei to win with a refunded stake in the event of a draw.
- Napoli vs Chelsea Bet 1: Napoli (Draw No Bet) at odds of 2.33 with Bet9ja
Statistics suggest a low-scoring encounter
Napoli have averaged just one goal per game in the UCL League Phase so far this campaign. However, they aren’t conceding plenty either. They’ve let in just one goal in their three League Phase matches at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
Away from Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have been much less prolific in the UCL this season. Despite scoring ten goals in four matches at Stamford Bridge, they’ve managed just four goals in three away matches.
Taking all of this into account, the odds available in the Under 2.5 goals market are somewhat surprising. The betting markets suggest there is only a 51.28% chance that this match will see two or fewer goals. However, this should be much closer to 60% or higher, given that Napoli’s three home games have yielded just five goals at either end.
- Napoli vs Chelsea Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 with Bet9ja
Big value on McTominay to be Napoli’s talisman
Scott McTominay’s move from Manchester to Naples has been very successful. The Scottish international has evolved into a goalscoring midfielder who is adored by the Partenopei faithful.
The 29-year-old has scored four goals in seven UCL League Phase games so far this season, at a strike rate of 57.14%. He has also netted four times in his last six games in all competitions, so he’s a man in form.
Yet the betting markets indicate he only has a 23.09% chance of finding the net against Chelsea. Given that he scored Napoli’s only goal in their last UCL game against FC Copenhagen, this percentage should surely be significantly higher. In fact, it seems like the most obvious value bet from our trio of Napoli vs Chelsea predictions.
- Napoli vs Chelsea Bet 3: Scott McTominay Anytime goalscorer at odds of 4.25 with Bet9ja