Should you Still Back Napoli for the Scudetto or is a Playoff Possible?

Only goal difference separates Inter and Napoli right now. However, Napoli’s far easier run-in makes them the value bet for the 24/25 Scudetto.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Is a Playoff for the 2024/25 Serie A Scudetto Possible?

It’s been more than six decades since the last playoff for the Serie A title. In 2022, Serie A reinstated a ruling that if two teams fighting for the title end level on points, a one-game playoff would decide the Scudetto.

Long-term Inter supporters will remember the last time the Serie A had a playoff to determine the Scudetto winner. Inter were runners-up to Bologna on goal difference in the 1963/64 season. They lost the playoff to Bologna 2-0 in Rome.

Although Inter currently lead Napoli by goal difference, the reinstated rule dictates that this wouldn’t be enough to clinch the title outright.

Inter would still get an advantage by finishing with a better goal difference than Napoli. They would get home advantage in the title playoff.

The rules also state that if the title playoff is tied after 90 minutes, the title would be decided by a penalty shootout.

Why Napoli Are in the Driving Seat

Inter blew their three-point advantage over Napoli last weekend with a 1-0 defeat at fourth-placed Bologna. Inter have picked up 13 points from their last six Serie A games, while Napoli have won 14 points from as many fixtures.

Although Napoli are currently 13 goals shy of Inter’s goal difference, Antonio Conte’s side have a genuine chance of inching ahead of Inter in the coming weeks.

Looking at the average points-per-game (PPG) achieved by their opponents, it is fewer than one point per game (0.99 PPG).

In the coming weeks, they travel to a Lecce side that have won only three times at home. They entertain Genoa, who have won just four away games this season. Meanwhile, their penultimate game is against a Cagliari side that have won only two of their 16 games outside of Sardinia.

Aside from Lecce, Napoli’s remaining opponents have very little to play for. Torino, Genoa and Parma are in mid-table positions, while Cagliari still have enough of a buffer between themselves and the drop zone.

Napoli also defeated all five of their remaining opponents in their first match-ups earlier in the season. In fact, they conceded just two goals in those five early season meetings too.

Inter’s Champions League Journey Taking Its Toll

It’s difficult not to admire the work Simone Inzaghi has done with the Nerazurri this season. They have scored 72 goals in 33 games and conceded only seven more than Napoli despite their more attack-minded approach.

Inter have also fought their way into this season’s Champions League semi-finals, after overcoming Bayern Munich in the last eight. Inter now prepare to face the might of Barcelona in the last four.

However, their Champions League quarter-final exploits appear to have taken their toll. Not only did they lose at Bologna, but they also lost 3-0 to city rivals AC Milan in their Coppa Italia semi-final on Wednesday night.

Inter have won only one Champions League since 1965, so it’s understandable if they’ve shifted their focus away from domestic matters. This does open up the door to Conte’s Napoli, especially given their favourable run-in.

The betting markets currently give Inter a 55.56% chance of lifting the Scudetto and Napoli a 50% chance of becoming champions. However, we think there will be too many distractions and challenges for Inter to get the job done.

This weekend, Inter host an AS Roma side that have averaged 2.50 points per game in their last eight Serie A matches. Claudio Ranieri’s men need to secure all three points to keep their Champions League qualification hopes for next season alive.

Inter also face fifth-placed Lazio on 18th May. Lazio will also need the points to keep the likes of Roma and Juventus at bay in their quest for Champions League football.

Even their final game of the season is a trip to newly promoted Como. Cesc Fabregas’ side have comfortably avoided relegation and are the in-form team in the bottom half, with 1.75 points per game in their last eight fixtures.

A Serie A playoff for the Scudetto would be one for the football romantics. However, it’s hard to see Inter keeping pace with Napoli between now and the end of May.