Can Ruben Amorim lift United beyond last season’s struggles?
After a 15th-place finish last season, things couldn’t really get too much worse for Manchester United. In previous years, their 42-point total might have put them in serious relegation danger. They’re seen as slightly more likely to get over 60 points this season than fall short of it.
Interestingly, the odds of avoiding relegation are only slightly different to those against a top-four finish. Earning 60+ points would have resulted in a top-10 finish last season, with 66+ needed to secure top six. Ruben Amorim has a lot of work to do if the Red Devils are to achieve anything truly meaningful.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Winner | 28.00 | 6.7% |
| Top Four | 4.50 | 20% |
| Top Six | 1.50 | 54.6% |
All odds courtesy of 1xBet, correct at the time of publication. May now differ.
Last season's table position: 15th
Opening five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | Arsenal (H) | 1-1 | 4 |
| 24/08/2025 | Fulham (A) | 0-1 Win | 3 |
| 30/08/2025 | Burnley (H) | N/A | 1 |
| 14/09/2025 | Manchester City (A) | 2-1 Win | 5 |
| 20/09/2025 | Chelsea (H) | 1-1 | 4 |
United certainly won’t get the chance to ease their way into the new season, either. An opening game against Arsenal will be difficult, especially after some strong summer work from the Gunners. Matches against Fulham and Burnley should be winnable, and the team are expected to secure those points, but then it gets tough again.
Facing Manchester City away is always difficult, let alone while in transition, and Chelsea are the reigning Club World Cup champions. Despite home advantage against Arsenal and the Blues, Amorim’s men won’t be favourites in three of their opening fixtures. It’ll be a real test for some of their new arrivals.
Player focus
Amorim has signed an exceptionally talented player in Matheus Cunha. His arrival at Old Trafford is sure to boost the team’s energy. There will be pressure on their new number 10, but he should be able to handle it.
Cunha and Bruno Fernandes scored five goals each from outside the box last season, the joint most in the Premier League. Meanwhile, United netted nine goals from outside the area in total, ranking fifth highest in the division. The addition of the Portuguese forward is likely to increase their long-range goals, as we know he’s capable of doing so.
However, the 26-year-old should lead to more goals in general, not just from outside the box. He was involved in 23 goals in 36 games for Wolverhampton Wanderers last season, and has scope for even more this season. With him on the team, United should be able to beat their miserable 44-goal tally from 2024/25.
Featured stats
- Last season, Bryan Mbeumo scored 20 goals from an xG of 12.26 (+7.74), making him the biggest expected goals overperformer in the Premier League. Matheus Cunha ranked 3rd behind Chris Wood, netting 15 goals from an xG of 8.63 (+6.37) at Wolves. They are unlikely to match last season’s goal tallies unless Manchester United can create more chances for the pair.
- Both Teams To Score - Yes occurred in just seven of Manchester United’s 19 league games at Old Trafford last season, and those matches averaged 2.68 goals per game. The Red Devils failed to find the net in eight of those matches in their worst scoring season in Premier League history. They scored just 44 goals across their 38 games.
Value Outright
Without knowing exactly how their new arrivals will settle in, the best value for Manchester United is probably on the points front. They’ve spent big on Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, and aren’t finished just yet. Improvement from last season is almost certain.
However, being better and being truly competitive are two different things, so backing them to surpass 60 points may be the smart play. They got 42 last season in one of their worst campaigns ever, but few expected things to be as bad in 2025/26. They’ve got 60+ in all but two of their many Premier League seasons - and have the ability to do so again.
Marcus Rashford is the only major outgoing at Old Trafford, and he was in and out of the side, so United haven’t really weakened. They are unlikely to be challenging at the top end of the table, but a marked improvement is to be expected.
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -11.94 | -3.24 | 14.57 | -31.4% | -8.5% | 38.3% |
| Home | -5.27 | -8.06 | 12.75 | -27.7% | -42.4% | 67.1% |
| Away | -6.67 | 4.82 | 1.81 | -35.1% | 25.4% | 9.6% |
| 2023/2024 | -1.98 | -9.98 | 1.07 | -5.2% | -26.3% | 2.8% |
| Home | -0.94 | -5.04 | 3.06 | -4.9% | -26.5% | 16.1% |
| Away | -1.04 | -4.94 | -1.99 | -5.5% | -26.0% | -10.5% |
| 2022/2023 | 7.10 | -12.51 | -12.13 | 18.7% | -32.9% | -31.9% |
| Home | 11.12 | -4.77 | -14.38 | 58.5% | -25.1% | -75.7% |
| Away | -4.02 | -7.74 | 2.25 | -21.2% | -40.7% | 11.8% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -6.04 | 4.06 | -15.9% | 10.7% |
| Home | -3.37 | 2.38 | -17.7% | 12.5% |
| Away | -2.67 | 1.67 | -14.1% | 8.8% |
| 2023/2024 | -4.16 | 1.75 | -10.9% | 4.6% |
| Home | -2.40 | 1.20 | -12.6% | 6.3% |
| Away | 5.41 | -6.51 | 28.5% | -34.3% |
| 2022/2023 | 1.98 | -4.54 | 5.2% | -11.9% |
| Home | -1.76 | 0.55 | -9.3% | 2.9% |
| Away | -3.43 | 1.97 | -18.1% | 10.4% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of bet365 and was correct at time of collection.
Over the past three Premier League seasons, home teams have unsurprisingly delivered the most positive Asian handicap returns. The 2022/23 campaign actually marked the first profitable season (at even stakes) since 2009/10, highlighting it’s a market worth exploiting. That’s particularly true for United, who are no longer the force they used to be, which is often reflected in the odds.
United had a starting handicap of 18 last season as reported by bet365, finishing with 42 in total. That gave them 60 points, including their handicap by the time it finished - the second-lowest in the division behind Tottenham Hotspur’s 58.
It was a truly dire Premier League campaign for Manchester United, and the betting numbers back that up. They beat the Asian handicap line just 12.5 times in 38 fixtures - the lowest in the division. There was plenty of value in backing the visitors at Old Trafford last season.
Bookmakers’ margins across the handicap types have remained consistent in recent years. Half-goal lines have shown the highest average loss rates, followed by quarter-goal hybrids. We could well see that remain the case again in 2025/26.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 50% | 42% | 32% |
| 2023/2024 | 63% | 55% | 50% |
| 2022/2023 | 50% | 42% | 61% |
Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen more games with over 2.5 goals scored than ones that don’t. In general, there are more goals being scored across the football landscape, and the Premier League is no different. Nor are Manchester United.
Backing over 2.5 goals in every United match over that period would have returned a profit more than half of the time. In contrast, the both teams to score market offers less value, making it one to oppose with them depending on the opponent. United have also suffered a year-on-year drop for scoring the first goal, but that has to stop somewhere - it was only 32% last time.
No team in the division was involved in fewer BTTS games last season (16), and only three had fewer over 2.5 matches (19). With new signings coming in, they should improve on both in the season ahead - and hope to fall behind less often. They went behind 25 times in 2024/25, and salvaged a result in only seven of those games - something they drastically need to improve on.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 44 | 52.6 | 54 | 53.8 | -10 | -1.3 |
| 2023/2024 | 57 | 56.5 | 58 | 68.9 | -1 | -12.5 |
| 2022/2023 | 58 | 67.7 | 43 | 50.4 | +15 | +17.3 |
Source: FbREF