Erling Haaland is having a stunning season in front of goal. The Norwegian hopes to add to his tally this weekend.
| Manchester City Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| To score over 2.5 goals vs Liverpool | 2.85 |
| Erling Haaland to score anytime vs Liverpool | 1.70 |
| Top 2 finish | 1.80 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
City look stronger ahead of Liverpool showdown
The 2024/25 season was one to forget for Manchester City. After four straight Premier League titles, they finished with their lowest points tally in the Pep Guardiola era.
Their attacking output also dipped, at least compared to their previous eight seasons under Guardiola. City only averaged 1.89 goals per game in the Premier League, which is their worst return with the Catalan at the helm. However, they still outperformed their average of 1.79 xG per 90 minutes.
Normal service has been resumed to some extent this term, with the Citizens scoring a league-high 20 goals in 10 matches so far. Since losing to Tottenham on Matchday 2, they've been particularly dominant at home. Guardiola's side have won their last four Premier League fixtures at the Etihad Stadium, scoring 13 times in the process.
Last weekend, they were convincing 3-1 winners over a high-flying Bournemouth side. A new 4-3-2-1 system worked well, with Rayan Cherki and Haaland very much on the same wavelength. The 22-year-old attacking midfielder set up both of the Norwegian striker’s goals, while Jeremy Doku completed four key passes and five dribbles.
That bodes well for their chances against a misfiring Liverpool side this weekend. The Reds won both meetings to nil last term, but historically this is a fixture that has served up plenty of action at each end. Both teams scored in all of the five meetings at the Etihad before last season, with City registering 12 goals across that period.
How far can Haaland’s goals take City?
City’s heavy reliance on Haaland is clear, and it would be a concern if the 25-year-old were to pick up an injury at some point. With 13 goals, he has scored more than twice as many as any other player in the Premier League this season. Haaland has netted 65% of his team’s goals, which is also the highest figure in the English top flight.
For now, that’s not necessarily a problem. Haaland is lethal in the final third and has been enjoying great service, with an average of 1.07 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League. His current numbers leave him firmly on course for a 40-goal season.
That could spell trouble for a Liverpool side that had lost six out of seven in all competitions before seeing off Aston Villa last weekend. The Reds seem to be paying the price for their failure to sign centre-back Marc Guehi late in the transfer window.
Haaland will certainly sense an opportunity to profit on Sunday, and he can be backed to score anytime with an implied probability of 60%. City’s fluid attacking display against the Cherries suggests they could really punish their out-of-form rivals. They may offer value with an implied probability of 33.3% of scoring over 2.5 goals.
This clash may also shape the title race by defining Arsenal’s most likely challengers. All indicators point to Man City as that team. They’ve been creating more xG and allowing fewer xG than the Reds, and victory this weekend would secure a four-point advantage on Arne Slot’s side.
That suggests now may be the time to back Man City to finish in the top two. They are currently given an implied probability of 55.6% of finishing second or higher.