How to Bet on the Final Day of the 2024/25 Premier League

At least 31 goals have been scored in the final week of the last nine Premier League seasons, with an average of 3.7 goals per game in 23/24.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

All Eyes on the Champions League Qualification Race 

Although the Premier League title race and the three relegation places have been decided, one big issue remains. Since there are seven teams and five Champions League qualification spots left, two sides are set for major disappointment on the final day.

There is one fixture in particular that is exciting for bettors – Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea. Forest are currently in seventh and Chelsea in the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot. Therefore, they know that they need to win to move ahead of the Blues.

However, Forest have averaged just 1.38 points per game from their last eight league games in a major fall from grace. Meanwhile, Chelsea have averaged 2.13 points per game despite not playing at their best. It’s essentially a one-off, winner-takes-all cup tie.

Both teams have scored in four of their last five competitive meetings, so it is likely both will score again this weekend.

Moreover, Forest haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last eight games, losing the defensive form that helped them reach the top three. Chelsea have scored first in five of their last six games, while Forest have fallen behind in four of their last five. 

We assume that Forest will be under heavy pressure early on and Enzo Maresca’s Blues to score first again at The City Ground.

Aston Villa are the other team that looks to enter the Premier League’s top five on the final day. They have been in great form in the last eight games, as they averaged 2.63 points per game.

Villa will play Manchester United, who might be distracted because they have a Europa League final in Bilbao on Wednesday. However, Villa have won only twice at Old Trafford in the history of the Premier League, so it will be a tough match.

Manchester City play away at Fulham. They have averaged 2.50 points per game from their last eight fixtures. Meanwhile, the Cottagers’ form has dipped significantly in this period, with just 1.13 points per game.

Newcastle are on home soil against David Moyes’ Everton. The Magpies haven’t beaten the Toffees in their last three competitive meetings. Also, eight of Everton’s last ten games have fewer than 2.5 Goals, so Eddie Howe’s men may find it hard to score if they need goals to keep their top-five place

Going for Goals Across the Board

It’s no surprise that the betting markets have raised the goal lines for the last day of the season, as at least 31 goals have been scored on that day in each of the past nine seasons.

There was a record 39 goals scored on the final day of the 2022/23 campaign, while 37 were scored last season.

Games that involved the relegated sides last year featured plenty of goals. Three goals were scored in the Burnley vs Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United vs Tottenham fixtures, as well as six in the Luton vs Fulham contest.

It could be worth to bet on Over 2.5 goals across all ten Premier League fixtures this weekend. In fact, it may even be worth it to bet on Over 3.5 Goals too, which happened in four of last season’s ten final day fixtures.

Team-Specific Final Day Trends

Tottenham tend to be strong on the final day of the season. They’ve lost one and won 11 of their last 14 final day Premier League fixtures.

Ange Postecoglu’s men will either be very happy after winning the Europa League or very disappointed if they lose to Manchester United and face a poor domestic season.

Regardless of the outcome, it may be difficult to back Spurs against Brighton this weekend. If they win in Europe, their minds are unlikely to be focused on Sunday’s game. If they lose, the fans may be unhappy with Postecoglou.

Manchester City have won all eight of their final day games under Pep Guardiola,so they are likely to beat a struggling Fulham.

Meanwhile, Wolverhampton Wanderers have lost nine of the ten final day games they’ve been involved in between 2003/04 and 2023/24. They’ve also conceded 12 in their last three final day fixtures. Therefore, their home game against high-scoring Brentford is set to be a thriller.