Having won two trophies last season, Chelsea cannot be overlooked as a title contender in the Premier League this season. They only lost one of their final eight games before their Conference League final, showing how difficult it was to beat them. As a result, they’re now fourth-favourites to win the title, which is not an unrealistic prediction with a 10% chance.
Another top-four finish is highly likely, even though they barely secured it last season. Meanwhile, a finish like Spurs and Man Utd’s last season is less probable. Maresca has signed some crucial players and is expected to sign more. Those will only strengthen his squad, which will now compete on four fronts. However, playing in the Champions League football may affect their league campaign, and possibly lead them to another fourth-place finish.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 9.80 | 10.20% |
| Top Four | 1.59 | 62.89% |
| Top Six | 1.18 | 84.75% |
All odds courtesy of 1xBet, correct at time of publication. May no differ.
Last season's finish: 4th
Opening five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | Crystal Palace (H) | 1-1 | 3 |
| 22/08/2025 | West Ham (A) | 0-3 Win | 2 |
| 30/08/2025 | Fulham (H) | 1-2 Loss | 3 |
| 13/09/2025 | Brentford (A) | 0-0 | 3 |
| 20/09/2025 | Manchester United (A) | 1-1 | 4 |
Chelsea have been given a favourable start with their first five Premier League fixtures, and could potentially win four of them. All four of those are the London derbies, starting with their home game against Crystal Palace. Despite drawing in their last term, this Chelsea team will be a different and better opponent.
The same applies to their trip to Brentford. Thomas Frank has left the Bees, as well as other key figures such as Bryan Mbuemo and Christian Nørgaard. The Blues will have a high chance of achieving three points in that match. Although Fulham might cause Chelsea some issues, a home defeat is not likely since the match is at Stamford Bridge. Finally, with Man Utd strengthening their frontline, a draw in that game is a realistic prediction.
Player focus
Joao Pedro looks like a promising addition to the lineup and has already scored three times in as many games for the club. However, the Blues’ most important player is Cole Palmer. The former Man City forward scored fewer goals than expected last term, but he also broke records. He became the fastest player to reach 50 goal involvements for the West Londoners, with 33 goals and 17 assists in just 48 appearances.
Palmer's form did decrease slightly last term. He scored just 15 league goals compared to the 22 goals he scored in fewer games in the season before. However, it’s important to remember that the Englishman takes penalties for the Blues. He scored four of those 15 goals as penalties last term, and nine of his 22 in the season before. Considering his statistics and his goal involvements, betting on him as an anytime goalscorer or to provide assists are great options for this Chelsea team.
Featured stats
- Chelsea have been the most carded team in the last two Premier League campaigns. They received 99 yellow cards and two red cards in the previous season. In 2023/24, they were given 105 yellow cards and four reds. They have also forced their opponents to receive many cards; their matches last season saw an average of 5.29 cards per game, which was the joint-most in the Premier League.
- Having netted six times, no team has scored fewer goals away from home than Chelsea in 2025. The three relegated teams, Ipswich (12), Southampton (8), and Leicester (7), all boasted more away Premier League goals in the calendar year.
Value Outright
Of course, backing Chelsea to win the league offers incredible value. However, they have a small chance of beating an improving Liverpool side or a Man City team that will be eager to recover their title. The best bet in the outrights market may be to determine their points tally.
Since bookmakers expect Chelsea to finish fourth, it might be best to look at the points tally in the past few seasons. The Blues earned 69 points last term. The season before saw Aston Villa clinch it with 68 points, and before that, Newcastle secured the spot with 71 points. A total of 67 to 69 points seems like a realistic outcome, and with a price of 8.00, it’s worth exploring. Additionally, half those odds can be got for a Chelsea top-two finish.
- Best bet: Points tally - between 67-69 points - 8.00 on 1xBet
- Best bet: Top two finish - 4.10 on 1xBet
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -4.06 | 1.32 | -8.27 | -10.7% | 3.5% | -21.8% |
| Home | -0.4 | 5.19 | -10.29 | -2.1% | 27.3% | -54.2% |
| Away | -3.66 | -3.87 | 2.02 | -19.3% | -20.4% | 10.6% |
| 2023/2024 | -6.09 | 3.03 | 3.16 | -16.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% |
| Home | -1.04 | -1.27 | 4.79 | -5.5% | -6.7% | 25.2% |
| Away | -5.05 | 4.30 | -1.63 | -26.6% | 22.6% | -8.6% |
| 2022/2023 | -19.41 | 3.22 | 20.23 | -51.1% | 8.5% | 53.2% |
| Home | -9.70 | 7.66 | 6.21 | -51.1% | 40.3% | 32.7% |
| Away | -9.71 | -4.44 | 14.02 | -51.1% | -23.4% | 73.8% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -6.00 | 3.49 | -15.8% | 9.2% |
| Home | -3.52 | 2.36 | -18.5% | 12.4% |
| Away | -2.48 | 1.13 | -13.1% | 5.9% |
| 2023/2024 | -1.36 | -0.84 | -3.6% | -2.2% |
| Home | 0.99 | -1.77 | 5.2% | -9.3% |
| Away | -2.35 | 0.93 | -12.4% | 4.9% |
| 2022/2023 | -14.41 | 11.59 | -37.9% | 30.5% |
| Home | -6.97 | 5.34 | -36.7% | 28.1% |
| Away | -7.44 | 6.25 | -39.2% | 32.9% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of 1xBet and was correct at time of collection.
Betting on Chelsea to lose at home has delivered the best returns for bettors in the last two seasons, with a return of 25.2%. However, that was when they were in a difficult situation. Their away form could still be a space for bettors to explore, as they drew five of their away games last season.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 55% | 58% | 58% |
| 2023/2024 | 71% | 66% | 55% |
| 2022/2023 | 42% | 47% | 42% |
Last season, Chelsea struggled in front of goal, with an xG of 37.2 but an actual return of 35 goals. That number was less than half of what they scored in the previous season. It’s evident in the number of games that produced more than two goals, which drastically reduced from over 70% to 55%.
However, Maresca has also significantly improved their defence, which is probably why they were able to secure a fourth-place finish. They registered 10 clean sheets in the league, which was only three fewer than Nottingham Forest and Arsenal. Therefore, it is evident that Chelsea are improving defensively, especially since they conceded one fewer goal than their xGA.
With the new attacking signings of Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Liam Delap, and Estêvsão, Maresca’s side may score as many goals as they did during the 2023/24 season.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 35 | 37.2 | 18 | 19 | +17 | +18.2 |
| 2023/2024 | 77 | 74.5 | 63 | 58.1 | +14 | +16.4 |
| 2022/2023 | 20 | 27.3 | 19 | 23.7 | +1 | +3.7 |
Source: FbREF