Arsenal’s clash with Kairat is the only one of the 18 games where there is nothing at stake in terms of the race for the top eight, or top 24.
| Champions League final matchday markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen -1 Handicap vs Villarreal | 1.89 |
| Kairat +3 Handicap vs Arsenal | 2.11 |
| PSG to win & Over 3.5 goals vs Newcastle | 3.10 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Champions League set for dramatic final matchday
The Champions League final matchday should be very exciting. Every goal will affect the live table, with 18 games taking place simultaneously.
The top eight teams will secure direct passage into the round of 16. So far, only Arsenal and Bayern Munich have booked their tickets.
Realistically, there are 13 clubs competing for the other six places. A draw is likely to be good enough for third-placed Real Madrid when they take on Benfica. However, the teams ranked between fourth and 15th, who are currently separated by just three points, must secure victories.
In such a tight race, it’s almost inevitable that goal difference will determine who will secure a top-eight place. PSG and Newcastle currently have the joint-best records (+10) among eight clubs on 13 points. However, they face each other in a huge clash on the final matchday.
Many teams that are directly below those two sides have favourable final fixtures. Barcelona host Copenhagen, Man City entertain Galatasaray, Atletico Madrid are at home to Bodo/Glimt, while Atalanta visit Union Saint-Gilloise.
Those matchups suggest 16 points will be the cut-off. That’s bad news for Inter and Juventus, who are currently one point further back on 12.
The teams that finish between ninth and 24th will go into February’s play-off round. Moreover, a tight race is likely for the final places, which could feature plenty of drama on Wednesday.
Ajax’s clash with Olympiacos and Club Brugge’s home game against Marseille are among the key duels on that front. Meanwhile, Napoli’s match with Chelsea will have a direct impact on who makes both the top eight and top 24.
Which teams are worth backing?
Understanding the many possibilities and variables will be key when it comes to betting on the final matchday. PSG and Newcastle’s meeting is the perfect example of that.
Both teams currently sit in the top eight. However, a draw at the Parc des Princes would almost certainly see both teams drop into the play-off round.
Despite an unconvincing overall campaign, PSG have shown signs of the team that excelled in this competition last season. They dominated Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 in Germany in October, before beating Spurs 5-3 the following month. Given the unique scenario, there is value in backing another high-scoring PSG win against the Magpies.
Arsenal seem set to clinch the top spot in the league phase. Only Bayern Munich can take their place. However, there are no tangible benefits to finishing first rather than second. That effectively makes the Gunners’ final game against Kairat meaningless.
With Arsenal still competing for silverware on four fronts, Mikel Arteta will surely make changes to his side. The eliminated Kazakhs have competed well in their last two away games, losing by only one-goal margins against Inter and Copenhagen. Backing Kairat with a +3 handicap could be the smart play.
Additionally, Villarreal have already been eliminated, as they’ve secured just one point from seven matches. They rested key players and were poor again in their 2-1 home loss to Ajax in their last match.
The Yellow Submarine are doing well in La Liga and they take on Real Madrid this weekend. That will take priority over next week’s trip to play Bayer Leverkusen.
The Germans will need to win to absolutely guarantee a play-off spot. Five of their last six victories in all competitions have come by margins of at least two goals. Backing Leverkusen with a -1 handicap seems like a bet that could land once more against opponents playing only for pride.