A lack of match sharpness may be an issue for the likes of Bodo/Glimt and Slavia Prague. They prepare to take on elite opposition this week.
| Champions League markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man City to win & Over 3.5 goals vs Bodo/Glimt | 2.29 |
| Barcelona -2 Handicap vs Slavia Prague | 2.27 |
| Barcelona to finish in the top eight | 1.91 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
How winter breaks around Europe affect the Champions League
Winter breaks vary across Europe. However, all of the continent’s big five leagues have now returned to action, with some not taking a break at all.
That’s not the case in countries like Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Denmark and Norway. Teams from those nations may be at a disadvantage when they play their first competitive football of 2026 this week.
The Champions League is in its second season under a new format that now includes matches in January. Under the old structure, the group stage concluded in December. The knockout stage wouldn’t kick off until February — after most winter breaks had ended.
Therefore, there is limited data on how winter breaks affect teams in the final two league-phase matchdays. Last season’s competition showed that clubs affected by breaks often struggled.
That was particularly evident on Matchday 7, when five of the six sides yet to return to domestic action lost. That included a 5-0 defeat for Sturm Graz and a 5-1 loss for RB Salzburg. Over the final two matchdays of last season’s Champions League group stage, clubs still on break lost 75% of their games.
This season, Bodo/Glimt, Kairat, Copenhagen, and Slavia Prague are still on their winter breaks. Meanwhile, Qarabag will only return to domestic action in between their final two fixtures in the UCL league phase. Their opponents hope to take advantage of that.
Barcelona to profit as the league phase concludes
The biggest beneficiaries over the next fortnight could be Barcelona. Their final two league-phase fixtures are against Slavia Prague and FC Copenhagen. Neither of those sides has played competitively since the first half of December.
Slavia have already suffered three defeats by three goals in this season’s competition. Averaging 2.33 goals per 90 minutes in Europe, Barcelona are well-placed to cover a -2 handicap in Prague.
They then host Copenhagen in their final game. With goal difference potentially coming into play, the Catalans may be in the mood to target a big win. So far in the Champions League, only Ajax have conceded more goals than the 16 goals shipped by Jacob Neestrup’s side.
Winning both fixtures would see Barca finish on 16 points. That was enough for a top-eight finish last term. Bayer Leverkusen, Lille and Aston Villa all progressed with that total.
While it does depend on other results, that tally should be sufficient for Barca this season. Given their final fixtures, backing Flick’s side to finish in the top eight appears good, with an implied probability of 52.4%.
Man City are another club who may benefit from facing opponents still on winter break. They’ll be eager to respond quickly to a damaging derby defeat at Old Trafford on Saturday.
Bodo/Glimt haven’t played a domestic match since November. They could be rusty as they prepare to welcome Pep Guardiola’s team. They’ve allowed 17.0 xG in the Champions League so far, which is the highest figure in the competition.
That suggests chances should be plentiful for the visitors when the clubs meet on Tuesday. Backing Man City to win a high-scoring match appears to offer value.