The bookmakers expect a close title race between Barcelona and Real Madrid this season. However, Barca are considered the slight favourites to defend the title they won last term.
Having been so impressive during La Liga 2024/25, Hansi Flick’s side are unlikely to be significantly weaker this time around. They are currently given an implied probability of 52.4% of being crowned champions of Spain for the second year in a row.
No side has achieved that since Barca won back-to-back titles between 2017 and 2019. However, they are only given an expected points tally of 83 this season, which is five lower than their total in Flick’s first season.
They won 16 of their final 18 fixtures to reach that many points. The bookmakers suggest that repeating that success will not be easy.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 1.90 | 52.4% |
| Top Four | 1.01 | 99.0% |
Odds via 1xBet correct at time of publication. May now differ.
Last season's table position: 1st
Opening five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | Levante (A) | N/A | 2 |
| 31/08/2025 | Rayo Vallecano (A) | 1-2 Win | 3 |
| 14/09/2025 | Valencia (H) | 7-1 Win | 2 |
| 21/09/2025 | Getafe (H) | 1-0 Win | 2 |
| 24/09/2025 | Real Oviedo (A) | N/A | 2 |
Having started their season with a 3-0 win over Mallorca, Barca are targeting big returns from their next five fixtures too. They will face two newly promoted sides, and they are likely to achieve maximum points from their trips to unfancied Levante and Real Oviedo.
Their trickiest opening game seems to be against Rayo Vallecano in Madrid on the last day of August. While they narrowly won in Vallecas last term, the Catalans have struggled against Rayo in recent times. They haven’t won any of their three trips before that. If there’s a match to avoid betting on a Barca victory in the opening weeks of La Liga 2025/26, it may be that one.
Player focus
With nine goals and 13 assists in La Liga, Lamine Yamas surpassed 20 goal contributions last season. The Spaniard scored 18 and had 21 assists across all competitions, showing that he is La Masia’s brightest youth prospect since Lionel Messi.
At 17 years old, Yamal recorded 11.6xA in La Liga and produced 188 shot-creating actions - the most in the division. No player had more assists than the Barcelona wonderkid, and nobody else even reached ten.
While Trent Alexander-Arnold could potentially compete with him this term, the teenager still deserves his status as the favourite to finish with the most assists.
Known for decisive passes to open up defences, Yamal’s 33 through balls also ranked top last season. This is 18 more than Vinicius Junior's league tally. He is currently generating 5.92 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes.
Barca often score just as freely against the top sides as the bottom ones, with 16 in four matches against Real Madrid last term. Therefore, the odds for the winger to assist could offer value, even in a key game like El Clasico.
- Best bet: Lamine Yamal Most Assists in La Liga at 11/8 on 1xBet
Featured stats
- Last season, Barcelona scored a total of 174 goals in all competitions, which was the third-biggest haul in their history. This is 27 more than the next best, Paris Saint-Germain. A total of 23 goals came outside the box, with Yamal scoring a team-high of seven. The team’s central striker, Robert Lewandowski, generated the highest expected goals total of any player in Europe’s top five leagues: 27.1xG.
- Raphinha led La Liga for non-penalty expected goals and assists last season. The Brazilian generated 17.6 npxG (the third highest in the league) and 12.7 xA (behind only teammate Yamal).
Value Outright
Xabi Alonso’s arrival at the Santiago Bernabeu could be good for Los Blancos in the long run. However, he needs to fix many issues, and this may take time. In contrast, Flick has relatively fewer problems to solve.
The German has not lost any key players in midfield or attack, with his attacking options strengthened by the addition of Marcus Rashford. While the Englishman is unlikely to start every match, his versatility adds vital depth in the final third. As a result, there’s no reason to expect any major decline from a side that won all three domestic competitions last term.
Defensively, there are still a few potential weak points, particularly at centre-back following the departure of Inigo Martinez. However, Barca should still outscore almost every rival in La Liga. Given their clear superiority over Los Blancos last term, they seem like the best value bet in the outright winner market.
- Barcelona outright best bet: Barcelona to win La Liga at 1.90 on 1xBet
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 4.95 | -18.87 | 23.84 | 13.0% | -49.7% | 62.7% |
| Home | -0.91 | -13.39 | 34.42 | -4.8% | -70.5% | 181.2% |
| Away | 5.86 | -5.49 | -10.58 | 30.8% | -28.9% | -55.7% |
| 2023/2024 | 4.27 | -4.44 | -16.92 | 11.2% | -11.7% | -44.5% |
| Home | 1.95 | -11.02 | -2.50 | 10.3% | -58.0% | -13.2% |
| Away | 2.32 | 6.58 | -14.42 | 12.2% | 34.6% | -75.9% |
| 2022/2023 | 4.70 | -15.05 | -12.59 | 12.4% | -39.6% | -33.1% |
| Home | 1.56 | 0.45 | -14.13 | 8.2% | 2.4% | -74.4% |
| Away | 3.14 | -15.50 | 1.54 | 16.5% | -81.6% | 8.1% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -1.27 | -1.26 | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| Home | -4.53 | 2.78 | -23.8% | 14.6% |
| Away | 2.12 | -4.37 | 11.2% | -23.0% |
| 2023/2024 | -3.16 | 0.33 | -8.3% | 0.9% |
| Home | -3.91 | 2.13 | -20.6% | 11.2% |
| Away | 0.75 | -1.8 | 3.9% | -9.5% |
| 2022/2023 | 0.06 | -2.06 | 0.2% | -5.4% |
| Home | -0.45 | -0.61 | -2.4% | -3.2% |
| Away | 0.51 | -1.45 | 2.7% | -7.6% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of bet365 and was correct at time of collection.
Barcelona move back into Camp Nou in September after two seasons at the Estadi Olimpic. However, they won’t be operating at anything like full capacity initially. Therefore, Punters may want to wait and see how they adapt to their new surroundings before looking for any betting trends.
Instead, backing Barca to win away from home may be a better option. Everybody who did this in La Liga last term enjoyed a huge 30.8% ROI.
This continues a trend of them being a profitable team to back away from home in each of the last three seasons in the 1X2 market. While returns were slightly lower, they also generated profit in the Asian Handicap market on the road across the same time period.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 71% | 61% | 74% |
| 2023/2024 | 61% | 55% | 74% |
| 2022/2023 | 53% | 29% | 71% |
Given their high-risk approach under Flick, it’s no surprise that 71% of Barcelona’s league games saw at least three goals last season. Both teams have scored in 61% of their games. Both of these numbers increased significantly under the German, when compared to the previous two years with Xavi as coach.
There’s every reason to expect that trend to continue in La Liga 2025/26. Barca’s high defensive line has been widely scrutinised, but has largely delivered results, as well as a lot of entertainment.
They may find it slightly harder to play without Martinez this season. The experienced defender was key to organising the offside trap, which caught opponents out an amazing 181 times in the league last term.
Additionally, Barca tend to start games well. They’ve scored the first goal in 74% of their La Liga fixtures in each of the last two seasons.
However, there is a difference in how they begin their home and away games. Flick is much more aggressive when his team play in front of their own fans. Last term, they scored a first-half goal in 79% of their home fixtures, compared to only 53% of their away matches.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 102 | 91.5xG | 39 | 41.9xG | +63 | +49.5 |
| 2023/2024 | 79 | 77.6xG | 44 | 41.6xGA | +35 | +35.9 |
| 2022/2023 | 70 | 75.5xG | 20 | 33.2xGA | +50 | +42.3 |
Source: FbREF