Massimiliano Allegri’s return to the San Siro has helped revive Milan’s fortunes heading into a key game against defending champions Napoli.
| AC Milan Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| To beat Napoli | 2.535 |
| To keep a clean sheet vs Napoli | 2.90 |
| To win Serie A | 8.80 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Has Allegri fixed Milan’s defence?
Milan turned back to Allegri, who was also their coach between 2010 and 2014, to replace Sergio Conceicao in the summer. While it’s true the 58-year-old has had less success in recent years, his track record is still impressive.
His speciality is getting teams organised defensively. In more than 800 games in a long managerial career in Italy, Allegri’s various sides average fewer than one goal conceded per 90 minutes. His win ratio remains comfortably over 50%.
It’s five wins from six and just two goals conceded so far in his second spell as Milan boss. I Rossoneri have won their last four fixtures in all competitions to nil.
That defensive quality is reminiscent of Allegri’s dominant Juventus side that won five consecutive Serie A titles between 2014 and 2019. That was when the Livorno-born coach really established his managerial reputation. Juve conceded just 0.66 goals per game in the Italian top flight across those five seasons.
So far in the 2025/26 campaign, Milan have the lowest xGA (expected goals allowed) figure in Europe’s big five leagues. They’ve conceded just 1.0 xGA in four Serie A matches. That easily beats the next best record, which is Bayern Munich’s 2.4 in the Bundesliga.
Can Leao’s return catapult them into title contention?
It is true that Milan have benefitted from some favourable fixtures so far. They’re yet to face any of the other teams in the top five in Serie A, although that will change when they host Napoli on Sunday.
Allegri’s side are given an implied probability of 41.7% of winning that match. However, given their defensive record, bettors may find greater value in backing Milan to keep a clean sheet, with a probability of 35.7%.
At this early stage in the campaign, both Allegri and Antonio Conte might let caution dictate their approach. Napoli boast a 100% record and the joint-third best defence in Serie A so far. The defending champions have benefitted from a kind domestic schedule, but they did fail to score against Man City in the Champions League.
The outcome of this weekend’s fixture certainly won’t determine the destiny of the title, but it’s an opportunity for Milan to make a statement.
History suggests that having the strongest defence is half the battle in terms of winning the Scudetto. Since the start of Allegri’s golden first stint in Turin, 10 of the 11 Serie A champions have finished with the best or joint-best defensive record.
The other positive news from a Milan perspective is that they still have Rafael Leao to return from injury. The Portuguese international has registered at least eight goals and at least eight assists in each of the last four Serie A seasons.
He averaged a goal contribution every 146 minutes last term. Allegri has hinted that the 26-year-old could feature this weekend, and that should only boost Milan’s chances of competing for the Serie A title.