Aston Villa’s 2-0 win over Norwich City in mid-December meant three wins from their first five Premier League games under Steven Gerrard.
They had also been competitive in the two single-goal losses to Manchester City and Liverpool, so it didn't feel outlandish to suggest Villa could push for Europe. After all, with 17 matches played they were only five points off West Ham United in fifth.
What was particularly disappointing about Villa's 2-1 loss at Wolves at the weekend – a result that made it three defeats in a row for the second time under Gerrard – was that nobody really seemed to take notice.
Villa have been drifting in mid-table for a long time now, their matches wholly irrelevant besides educating Gerrard on what he needs to do next.
Patience required before a big summer
Villa are infuriatingly up and down under Gerrard, with a string of wins closely followed by a string of defeats, and the easiest explanation for this is that Villa are, quite simply, a mid-table team.
Certainly, that is the conclusion Gerrard seems to have reached. After the Wolves game he told reporters that “I’ve got to fix it and I will fix it. The players in the building have to help me fix it now; if not, we will get players in who will help me fix it.”
Clearly, there is a big summer ahead for Villa, and in this period of transition we should not expect too much of Gerrard. The project won't really begin until August.
Nevertheless, there are tactical issues emerging with Gerrard's Christmas Tree 4-3-2-1 formation, both on and off the ball, that may strike the Villa manager as a new challenge.
At Rangers, where the quality of opposition was much lower, few teams had the time, resources, or quality to work out the flaws in his system and adapt accordingly.
In the Premier League, though, he is finding that opponents have discovered Villa's weaknesses both in an attacking and defensive sense.
Attacking setup: too narrow & too much possession
At first, Gerrard's novel system worked well as opponents struggled to come to terms with marking dual playmakers behind a central striker.
Along with John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey piercing forward from midfield (Gerrard encourages a level of driving verticality similar to his own playing style), this created a workload centrally that opponents could not handle.
This would force them to draw infield, in turn leaving room out wide for Villa's flying full-backs to get on the ball and cause damage. But, as time goes on, this is becoming less effective. Adaptation has been quick.
In recent matches West Ham, Arsenal, and Wolves have all worked hard to block that central column with a double pivot that – sticking close to the centre-back – does a good job of crowding out the No.10s.
This slows Villa right down and forces more sideways possession, meaning the full-backs are no longer arriving in the final third at pace – or in space.
The second attacking issue is to do with how much possession Villa hold. Gerrard wants his team on the front foot, pressing sharply and boldly stepping onto the opponent, and yet this is only serving to further jam up that important No.10 area.
Sharp, vertical football, bouncing off a couple of playmakers, necessarily requires lots of room in the transition – and so the more possession and territory Villa hold, the more the opponent's deep and narrow block stumps them.
By contrast, when on the back foot, Villa can spring forward on the counter, releasing Ramsey, Emiliano Buendia, and Philippe Coutinho into wide-open patches of grass.
The stats back this up. In Villa's most recent three-game winning streak they averaged 39 per cent possession, whereas in their last three – all defeats – they averaged 50%.
Looking across Gerrard's entire reign, Villa have won 22 points from the 13 matches in which they have held the minority of possession (1.7 per game) and four points from the seven matches in which they have held the majority (0.6 per game).
The best solution to the emerging attacking issue is to add a couple more formations to his arsenal, if only to keep opponents guessing: if Villa are capable of multiple systems, they won't so often find a crowded central midfield awaits them.
However, if Gerrard wishes to keep the 4-3-2-1 then he needs to embrace Villa's status as a reactive side, welcoming a lower starting block and seeing less of the ball.
That means ensuring the press is only enacted in the middle third of the pitch and, starting deeper, use their build-up play to draw the opponent into pressing them.
Defensive setup: space out wide & no holding midfielder
Villa's defensive concerns are equally to do with Villa's persistence with a 4-3-2-1.
Analysing the 22 goals conceded in Gerrard's 21 games in charge reveals that a shocking 13 (59%) have come directly from the flanks – with seven (32%) from set-pieces or penalties, and the other two from a high turnover and a rare counterattack through the centre of the pitch.
Gerrard's Christmas Tree rarely allows for the two No.10s to drop out wide into traditional winger roles, which means retaining that narrow 4-3-2-1 even when under pressure.
The upside to that is Villa have three attackers close together when counterattacking opportunities arise, but the downside is the full-backs being overworked.
There are countless examples over the last few months of teams scoring against Villa via simple overload out wide: a winger squares up Matty Cash or Ashley Young/Lucas Digne, then releases an overlapping full-back to create a goalscoring opportunity. West Ham and Arsenal, in particular, did this over and over.
Again, when you always play the same way – with the same flaws – it isn't long before opponents spend time in training working on how to exploit the issue.
However, Villa's form has notably declined since Marvelous Nakamba's injury in December, and his deputy Douglas Luiz simply does not possess the defensive qualities needed to anchor the midfield.
Considering how assertively McGinn and Ramsey get forward, defensive midfield is a vital defensive position that needs work.
GettyIf Villa had a better player here, then Ramsey and McGinn would be more free to get out wide and help their full-back.
Furthermore, with Villa in a stretched shape and hoping to control games with possession, they need someone who can dominate the midfield battle.
Villa supporters can take some comfort from this latter point, which essentially reinforces the idea that Gerrard simply needs more time and a summer transfer window to change things.
Bringing in a few more high-quality players will also give Gerrard greater freedom to move away from the 4-3-2-1 and make Villa more versatile, and that's before considering just how much the tactical setup will improve with a full pre-season.
Gerrard hasn't had much time to get the intricacies of his 4-3-2-1 across. Perhaps a summer on the training ground will shut down the spaces in front of the full-backs and lead to some creative solutions to the congestion problem at the other end.
In other words, there is no need for alarm. Villa and Gerrard are very much at the beginning of a project.
There were always going to be roadblocks, and Villa are particularly fortunate to have the resources to overcome them; to have wealthy owners willing to back Gerrard when he says he will fix it, with or without the current crop of players.