The stage is set for a dramatic second half to the Premier League season, following a month-long hiatus for the World Cup in Qatar.
Mikel Arteta and the Gunners remain in control, five points clear of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
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However, there is an intriguing battle for the top 4 that includes many of the usual suspects, along with a fresh face.
Who will challenge for the top 4 and secure Champions League football next season? Let’s look at the current betting odds to determine our best bet and break down the field.
English Premier League Top-4 Odds 2023
All EPL betting odds are current as of Dec. 18 at 9 a.m. ET on BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
- Manchester City (N/A)
- Arsenal (-2000)
- Liverpool (-175)
- Tottenham Hotspur (+110)
- Newcastle United (+135)
- Manchester United (+135)
- Chelsea (+333)
- Brighton & Hove Albion (+1400)
- Crystal Palace (+10000)
- Aston Villa (+10000)
- Brentford (+15000)
- West Ham United (+15000)
- Leicester City (+15000)
- Fulham (+15000)
- Everton (+25000)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (+50000)
- Leeds United (+50000)
- Southampton (+50000)
- AFC Bournemouth (+50000)
- Nottingham Forest (+50000)
There is clearly no value in placing a top-4 wager on Arsenal, while Manchester City is not even on the board.
This leaves several teams fighting for the other two spots that could be a decent investment for your betting portfolio: Tottenham, Newcastle, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea.
English Premier League Best Bet To Finish Top-4
Newcastle United (+135)
Eddie Howe has done an outstanding job managing a Magpies roster that has felt its fair share of injuries.
Newcastle were a dark-horse favorite among football pundits this season, but their performance to date has exceeded expectations.
Just seven points separate the Magpies from Arsenal at the top of the table, while Newcastle remain just two points shy of Manchester City for second place.
The Newcastle attack is led by Miguel Almirón, who currently boasts the sixth-highest goal total in the Premier League with eight. Meanwhile, Kieran Trippier has been a force on defense while collecting five Man of the Match awards.
Due to the deep pockets of ownership, it is impossible to discount how aggressive Newcastle could be in the January transfer window. This makes them a very dangerous club, capable of making a surprise run at the Premier League championship while maintaining their spot in the top 4.
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English Premier League Contenders To Finish Top-4
Liverpool (-175)
After a rough start to their Premier League campaign, the Reds are in sixth place (seven points out of the top 4).
It would not be a surprise to see Jürgen Klopp’s club dominate in the second half, but their first-half struggles were not a mirage.
On the other hand, Liverpool sit among the league leaders in team offense and there is plenty of evidence to support their run at the top 4.
The only issue is the price tag of -175, which is quite steep for a club that is just one point clear of Chelsea and Brighton. In fact, the Reds are just as close to 15th (Leeds United) as they are to the top 4.
Not a bad prediction, but a poor bet.
Tottenham Hotspur (+110)
Tottenham can be a wrecking ball at times due to an attack led by Harry Kane. However, their continued flaw continues to be their defense.
Over the first half, Spurs have conceded more goals than any club in the top 8. That said, they do carry the fifth-best goal differential (10) due to their potent attack.
Antonio Conte’s club is in a solid position to finish in the top 4, but their fortunes may be tied to how they address their defensive deficiencies in the transfer window.
Manchester United (+135)
The Red Devils have put their fans on a roller coaster all season, beginning with a trip to the bottom of the table before climbing to their current position in fifth place.
Manchester United are just three points shy of Tottenham for a spot in the top 4 and look to put forth a strong challenge until the end.
The additions of Casemiro and Antony were an exciting boost early in the season, but the drama surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo is what grabbed headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Erik ten Hag is doing an admirable job in a challenging situation, but the Red Devils seem like a club who are at least another year away.
Chelsea (+333)
The Blues have showcased their fair share of ups and downs this season, which resulted in the sacking of Thomas Tuchel in exchange for former Brighton manager Graham Potter.
This could be an uphill battle for Chelsea to reach the top 4, but they remain just one point shy of Liverpool with a roster full of talent. It is not difficult to imagine a team with Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mason Mount, Reece James, and Thiago Silva making a run.
This would be a pure value play at +333, hoping that Chelsea will become aggressive in the January transfer window. Maybe Potter can catch lightning in a bottle down the stretch.