After knocking out Real Madrid in the previous round, and producing some excellent performances this season in La Liga, Celta Vigo are clear favorites to make it through this semi final of the Copa Del Rey.
Standing in the Galicians' way are an Alaves side who have widely overachieved this term, with the newly promoted team sitting comfortably in mid-table as well as having progressed to the last four of the cup for the first time in 13 years.
It must not be forgotten that while Celta were knocking out the European champions in the previous round, Alaves were handed an infinitely more straightforward fixture against Alcorcon, the only second tier team left in the tournament.
Nevertheless, this should be a competitive tie, and in the league fixture between these two sides in Vigo just over two weeks ago, Celta needed an 89th minute goal to win 1-0. Betfair make the hosts clear favourites offering Celta at 18/25 (1.72) while Alaves can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and the draw is offered at 12/5 (3.40).
Given Alaves' impressive record in big games this season, it feels as if they are a little overpriced. The side from the city of Vitoria won 2-1 at the Camp Nou against Barcelona, drew 1-1 at the Vicente Calderon against Atletico and last Saturday absolutely dominated Los Rojiblancos at home in a game that finished 0-0 at the Estadio Mendizorroza.
Alaves' problem is scoring goals and despite sitting in 12th position they are the third lowest scorers in La Liga with just 17 goals from 20 matches. Celta's total of 31 is nearly double that, although with 33 goals conceded the Vigo outfit have let in 13 more goals than Alaves' total of 20.
In general terms then, this game sees an open attacking home side, going up against a team that keeps things tight particularly on the road. Indeed, only three teams have conceded fewer goals than Alaves away from home in La Liga, with Mauricio Pellegrino's men boasting a better defensive record than Barcelona in away games this term.
The bookmakers think this will be a low-scoring game despite Celta's decent record in front of goal and under 2.5 goals is offered at 6/10 (1.60). That is not a particularly appealing price, nor are the odds of 4/6 (1.66) to oppose both teams scoring, yet if you combine both selections that the price becomes more temapting.
Under 2.5 goals and opposing both teams to score is offered at evens (2.00) and this seems like an effective way of backing a low scoring encounter. This bet has paid out in Celta's last three league games, and in six of Alaves' last eight away games in all competitions.